Approximately $311.0 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, December 15, 2011 -- Moody's has affirmed the ratings of all classes of Notes issued by N-Star
REL CDO IV due to key transaction parameters performing within levels
commensurate with the existing ratings levels. While the transaction
is highly sensitive to recovery rates, the current distribution
of credits and higher weighted average recovery rate (WARR) provides a
mitigant. The rating action is the result of Moody's on-going
surveillance of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation
(CRE CDO) transactions.
Cl. A, Affirmed at A1 (sf); previously on Dec 15,
2010 Downgraded to A1 (sf)
Cl. B, Affirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Dec 15,
2010 Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Cl. C, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Dec 15,
2010 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. D, Affirmed at B3 (sf); previously on Dec 15,
2010 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
Cl. E, Affirmed at Caa2 (sf); previously on Dec 15,
2010 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. F, Affirmed at Caa3 (sf); previously on Dec 15,
2010 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. G, Affirmed at Caa3 (sf); previously on Apr 7,
2009 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
N-Star REL CDO IV, Ltd.. is a static cash CRE
CDO transaction (the reinvestment period ended on July 27, 2010
) backed by a portfolio of whole loans and A-Notes (51.8%
of the pool balance), mezzanine loans (21.3%),
B-Notes (12.4%), CRE CDOs (7.3%),
commercial mortgage-backed securities (5.4%) and
real estate investment trust (REIT) debt (1.7%).
As of the November 28, 2011 Trustee report, the aggregate
Note balance of the transaction, including preferred shares,
$371.0 million from $400 million at issuance,
with the paydown directed to the Class A Notes, as a result of regular
amortization of the underlying collateral.
There are seven assets with a par balance of $40.9 million
(9.7% of the current pool balance) that are considered Impaired
Interests as of the November 28, 2011 Trustee report. Five
of these assets (65.6% of the defaulted balance) are CMBS,
one asset is former mezzanine loan that is now real estate owned (17.6%),
and one asset is a B-Note (16.7%). Impaired
Interests that are not CMBS are defined as assets which are in payment
default or foreclosure has occured. While there have been limited
realized losses to date, Moody's does expect significant losses
to occur once they are realized.
Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the
expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: weighted average rating
factor (WARF), weighted average life (WAL), WARR, and
Moody's asset correlation (MAC). These parameters are typically
modeled as actual parameters for static deals and as covenants for managed
deals.
WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool.
We have completed updated credit estimates for the non-Moody's
rated collateral. The bottom-dollar WARF is a measure of
the default probability within a collateral pool. Moody's
modeled a bottom-dollar WARF of 7,737 compared to 7,034
at last review. The distribution of current ratings and credit
estimates is as follows: Aaa-Aa3 (0.7% compared
to 0.9% at last review), A1-A3 (3.6%
compared to 3.6% at last review), Baa1-Baa3
(0.6% compared to 0.6% at last review),
Ba1-Ba3 (4.0% compared to 1.8% at last
review), B1-B3 (0.3% compared to 7.5%
at last review), and Caa1-C (90.8% compared
to 85.6% at last review).
WAL acts to adjust the probability of default of the collateral in the
pool for time. Moody's modeled to a WAL of 2.9 years compared
to 2.1 at last review.
WARR is the par-weighted average of the mean recovery values for
the collateral assets in the pool. Moody's modeled a fixed
WARR of 30.8% compared to 29.0% at last review.
MAC is a single factor that describes the pair-wise asset correlation
to the default distribution among the instruments within the collateral
pool (i.e. the measure of diversity). Moody's
modeled a MAC of 100% compared to 100% at last review.
Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.8, one of Moody's
CDO rating models, which was released on January 24, 2011.
The cash flow model, CDOEdge® v3.2.1.0,
was used to analyze the cash flow waterfall and its effect on the capital
structure of the deal.
Changes in any one or combination of the key parameters may have rating
implications on certain classes of rated notes. However,
in many instances, a change in key parameter assumptions in certain
stress scenarios may be offset by a change in one or more of the other
key parameters. Rated notes are particularly sensitive to changes
in recovery rate assumptions. Holding all other key parameters
static, changing the recovery rate assumption down from 31%
to 21% or up to 41% would result in average rating movement
on the rated tranches of 0 to 8 notches downward and 0 to 9 notches upward,
respectively.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of the slowdown
in growth in the current macroeconomic environment and the commercial
real estate property markets. While commercial real estate property
markets are gaining momentum, a consistent upward trend will not
be evident until the volume of transactions increases, distressed
properties are cleared from the pipeline and job creation rebounds.
The hotel and multifamily sectors are in recovery and improvements in
the office sector continue, with fundamentals in Gateway cities
outperforming their suburban counterparts. However, office
demand is closely tied to employment, where fundamentals remain
weak, so significant improvement may be delayed. Performance
in the retail sector has been mixed with on-going rent deflation
and leasing challenges. Across all property sectors, the
availability of debt capital continues to improve with monetary policy
expected to remain supportive and interest rate hikes postponed.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario reflects an overall downward
revision of forecasts since last quarter, amidst ongoing fiscal
consolidation efforts, household and banking sector deleveraging,
persistently high unemployment levels, and weak housing markets
that will continue to constrain growth.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating
SF CDOs" published in November 2010, and "Moody's Approach to Rating
Commercial Real Estate CDOs" published in July 2011. Please see
the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these
methodologies.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Although this credit rating has been issued in a non-EU country
which has not been recognized as endorsable at this date, this credit
rating is deemed "EU qualified by extension" and may still
be used by financial institutions for regulatory purposes until 31 January
2012. ESMA may extend the use of credit ratings for regulatory
purposes in the European Community for three additional months,
until 30 April 2012, if ESMA decides that exceptional circumstances
arise that may imply potential market disruption or financial instability.
Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's
office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing
a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it
uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's
considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent
third-party sources. However, Moody's is not
an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate
information received in the rating process.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating
Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on
the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and
recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on
which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's
ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available.
Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is
the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available
to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has
issued the rating.
Edward Siegel
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Michael M. Gerdes
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Affirms All Classes of N-Star REL CDO IV, Ltd.