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Rating Action:

Moody's Affirms Fourteen Classes of GSMS 2013-GCJ16

Global Credit Research - 29 Jun 2017

Approximately $1.0 Billion of Structured Securities Affected

New York, June 29, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the ratings on 14 classes in GS Mortgage Securities Trust 2013-GCJ16, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2013-GCJ16 as follows:

Cl. A-2, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-4, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-AB, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-S, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Aa3 (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed A3 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed A3 (sf)

Cl. D, Affirmed Baa3 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Baa3 (sf)

Cl. E, Affirmed Ba1 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Ba1 (sf)

Cl. F, Affirmed Ba3 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Ba3 (sf)

Cl. G, Affirmed B3 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed B3 (sf)

Cl. X-A, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. X-B, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed Aa3 (sf)

Cl. PEZ, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2016 Affirmed A1 (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings on 11 P&I classes were affirmed because the transaction's key metrics, including Moody's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the transaction's Herfindahl Index (Herf), are within acceptable ranges.

The transaction contains a group of exchangeable certificates. Classes A-S, B and C may be exchanged for Class PEZ certificates and Class PEZ may be exchanged for the Classes A-S, B and C. The PEZ certificates will be entitled to receive the sum of interest and principal distributable on the Classes A-S, B and C certificates that are exchanged for such PEZ certificates. The rating on the PEZ class was affirmed due to the weighted average rating factor (WARF) of its exchangeable classes.

The ratings on the two IO classes, Classes X-A and X-B, were affirmed based on the credit quality of their respective referenced classes.

Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 1.7% of the current balance, compared to 2.0% at Moody's last review. Moody's base expected loss plus realized losses is now 1.7% of the original pooled balance, compared to 1.9% at the last review. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255.

FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS:

The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. Performance that falls outside the given range can indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had previously expected.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include a significant amount of loan paydowns or amortization, an increase in the pool's share of defeasance or an improvement in pool performance.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include a decline in the performance of the pool, loan concentration, an increase in realized and expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans or interest shortfalls.

METHODOLOGY UNDERLYING THE RATING ACTION

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Approach to Rating US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion CMBS" published in December 2014. The methodology used in rating the exchangeable class, Cl. PEZ was "Moody's Approach to Rating Repackaged Securities" published in June 2015. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Additionally, the methodology used in rating Cl. X-A and Cl. X-B was "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities" published in June 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

DEAL PERFORMANCE

As of the June 12, 2017 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 5% to $1.03 billion from $1.09 billion at securitization. The certificates are collateralized by 76 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 7% of the pool, with the top ten loans constituting 42% of the pool. One loan, constituting 5.5% of the pool, has an investment grade structured credit assessment. Four loan, constituting 9% of the pool, have defeased and are secured by US government securities.

Nine loans, constituting 12% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans that meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of Moody's ongoing monitoring of a transaction, the agency reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could affect performance. There are currently no loans in special servicing.

Moody's received full year 2015 operating results for 97% of the pool, and full or partial year 2016 operating results for 98% of the pool. Moody's weighted average conduit LTV is 91%, compared to 95% at Moody's last review. Moody's conduit component excludes loans with structured credit assessments, defeased and CTL loans, and specially serviced and troubled loans. Moody's net cash flow (NCF) reflects a weighted average haircut of 11% to the most recently available net operating income (NOI). Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.6%.

Moody's actual and stressed conduit DSCRs are 1.59X and 1.19X, respectively, compared to 1.52X and 1.13X at the last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stress rate the agency applied to the loan balance.

The loan with a structured credit assessment is the Gates at Manhasset Loan ($56.4 million -- 5.5% of the pool), which is secured by a 106,000 square foot (SF) open air retail property located on Northern Boulevard in Manhasset, New York. The property was 100% leased as of March 2017, compared to 99% leased at last review. The property's tenants include Crate & Barrel as the anchor, and in-line shops include Gap, Urban Outfitters, Banana Republic and Abercrombie & Fitch. Moody's structured credit assessment and stressed DSCR are a1 (sca.pd) and 1.34X, respectively.

The top three conduit loans represent 18% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the Miracle Mile Shops Loan ($70 million -- 6.8% of the pool), which is secured by a 448,835 SF regional mall located on the Las Vegas strip in Las Vegas, NV. The property was originally developed in 2000 as the Desert Passage, a high-end luxury mall attached to the Aladdin Hotel and Casino and was rebranded in 2008. As of December 2016, the subject was 97% leased compared to 96% at last review. The loan represents a pari-passu portion of a total $580 million mortgage loan. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 89% and 0.88X, respectively, the same as at last review.

The second largest loan is the Windsor Court New Orleans Loan ($69.2 million -- 6.7% of the pool), which is secured by 316-key hotel located in the central business district (CBD) of New Orleans, Louisiana (less than one mile from the French Quarter). According to the April 2017 Smith Travel Research (STR) report, the property has the strongest revenue per available room (RevPAR) amongst its competitive set. As of May 2017, the property's trailing twelve month RevPAR decreased by less than 1% to $224 while ADR increased 6% over the prior year to $324. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 98% and 1.22X, respectively, compared to 99% and 1.20X at last review.

The third largest loan is the Walpole Shopping Mall Loan ($46.9 million -- 4.5% of the pool), which represents a pari-passu portion of a $64.4 million mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 397,791 SF shopping mall located in Walpole, Massachusetts. The property is also encumbered by a $10 million mezzanine loan. The property was 99% leased as of December 2016, compared to 93% at last review. The property's financial performance has steadily increased in each of the past three years and there are limited lease expirations over the next 12 months. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 109% and 0.92X, respectively, the same as at last review.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.

Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Gregory Reed
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Matthew Halpern
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
© 2017 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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