Approximately $556.5 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, December 03, 2010 -- Moody's has affirmed one and downgraded ten classes of Notes issued by
Mesa West Capital CDO, Ltd. 2007-1 due to the deterioration
in the credit quality of the underlying portfolio as evidenced by an increase
in the weighted average rating factor (WARF) and the sensitivity of the
transaction to recovery rates. The rating action is the result
of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial real estate
collateralized debt obligation (CRE CDO) transactions.
Cl. A-1, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on
Apr 27, 2009 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-2, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on
Apr 27, 2009 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)
Cl. B, Downgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Cl. C, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
Cl. D, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Cl. E, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. F, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
Cl. G, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
Cl. H, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. J, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. K, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Apr 27,
2009 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Mesa West Capital CDO, Ltd. 2007-1 is a revolving
CRE CDO transaction backed by a portfolio of whole loans (95.1%)
and B-Notes (4.9%). As of the October 25,
2010 Trustee report, the aggregate Note balance of the transaction
is $600.0 million, the same as at issuance.
There are no assets that are considered Defaulted Securities as of the
October 25, 2010 Trustee report. Defaulted Assets that are
not CMBS are defined as assets which are 30 or more days delinquent in
their debt service payment.
Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the
expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: WARF, weighted
average life (WAL), weighted average recovery rate (WARR),
and Moody's asset correlation (MAC). These parameters are typically
modeled as actual parameters for static deals and as covenants for managed
deals. Per the legal documentation the transactions will end its
reinvestment period in February 2012.
WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool.
We have completed updated credit estimates for the non-Moody's
rated reference obligations. For non-CUSIP collateral,
Moody's is eliminating the additional default probability stress
applied to corporate debt in CDOROM® v2.6 as we expect the
underlying non-CUSIP collateral to experience lower default rates
and higher recovery compared to corporate debt due to the nature of the
secured real estate collateral. The bottom-dollar WARF is
a measure of the default probability within a collateral pool.
Moody's modeled a bottom-dollar WARF of 6,507 compared
to 3,388 at last review. The distribution of current ratings
and credit estimates is as follows: Aaa-Aa3 (0.0%
compared to 0.0% at last review), A1-A3 (0.0%
compared to 0.0% at last review), Baa1-Baa3
(0.0% compared to 0.0% at last review),
Ba1-Ba3 (10.0% compared to 2.4% at
last review), B1-B3 (4.7% compared to 97.6%
at last review), and Caa1-C (85.3% compared
to 0.0% at last review).
WAL acts to adjust the probability of default of the reference obligations
in the pool for time. Moody's modeled to a WAL of 6.5 years
compared to 8.0 years at last review.
WARR is the par-weighted average of the mean recovery values for
the collateral assets in the pool. Moody's modeled a fixed
WARR of 55.0% compared to 55.5% at last review.
MAC is a single factor that describes the pair-wise asset correlation
to the default distribution among the instruments within the collateral
pool (i.e. the measure of diversity). For non-CUSIP
collateral, Moody's is reducing the maximum over concentration stress
applied to correlation factors due to the diversity of tenants,
property types, and geographic locations inherent in pooled transactions.
Moody's modeled a MAC of 99.9% compared to 26.4%
at last review. The high MAC is due to a small number of high credit
Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.6, one of Moody's
CDO rating models, which was released on May 27, 2010.
The cash flow model, CDOEdge® v3.2, was used to
analyze the cash flow waterfall and its effect on the capital structure
of the deal.
Changes in any one or combination of key parameters may have have rating
implications on certain classes of rated notes. However,
in many instances, a change in assumptions of any one key parameter
may be offset by a change in one or more of the other key parameters.
Rated notes are particularly sensitive to changes in recovery rate assumptions.
Holding all other key parameters static, changing the recovery rate
assumption down from 55.0% to 45.0% or up
to 65.0% would result in average rating movement on the
rated tranches of 0 to 5 notches downward and 0 to 8 notches upward,
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics. Primary sources
of assumption uncertainty are the current stressed macroeconomic environment
and continuing weakness in the commercial real estate and lending markets.
Moody's currently views the commercial real estate market as stressed
with further performance declines expected in a majority of property sectors.
The availability of debt capital is improving with terms returning towards
market norms. Job growth and housing price stability will be necessary
precursors to commercial real estate recovery. Overall, Moody's
central global scenario remains "hook-shaped" for 2010
and 2011; we expect overall a sluggish recovery in most of the world's
largest economies, returning to trend growth rate with elevated
fiscal deficits and persistent unemployment levels.
The principal methodologies used in these ratings were "CMBS: Moody's
Approach to Revolving Facilities in CDOs Backed by Commercial Real Estate
Securities" published in July 2004, and "Moody's Approach
to Rating SF CDOs" published in November 2010.
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available
on www.moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes
a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies,
available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
Moody's Investors Service did not receive or take into account a third
party due diligence report on the underlying assets or financial instruments
related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings,
public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service's information, confidential and proprietary Moody's
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the issuer
or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining a credit rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to
a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized
and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's
Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable
and accurate based on the information that is available to it.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies
used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Zhonghui (Grace) Wu
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Affirms One and Downgrades Ten CRE CDO Classes of Mesa West Capital CDO, Ltd. 2007-1
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007