Approximately $160.0 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, February 01, 2013 -- Moody's has affirmed two classes and downgraded one class of Certificates
issued by Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Securities Corp.
CSMC Series 2009-RR1. The affirmations are due to key transaction
parameters performing within levels commensurate with the existing ratings
levels. The downgrade is due to negative credit migration of the
underlying collateral and higher expected losses on the underlying pool
of loans .The rating action is the result of Moody's on-going
surveillance of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation
(CRE Non-Pooled ReREMIC) transactions.
Moody's rating action is as follows:
Cl. A-3A Certificate, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously
on Jul 17, 2009 Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3B Certificate, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously
on Jan 31, 2012 Downgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Cl. A-3C Certificate, Downgraded to B1 (sf);
previously on Jan 31, 2012 Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Securities Corp., Series
2009-RR1 is a Re-Remic Pass Through Trust backed by $160.0
million, or 21.1% of the aggregate class principal
balance, of the super senior Class A3 commercial mortgage backed
securities (CMBS) certificates issued by Credit Suisse Commercial Mortgage
Trust 2007-C1.
On January 25, 2013, Moody's downgraded the Class A-3
Certificates of Credit Suisse Commercial Mortgage Trust Series 2007-1
due to negative credit migration of the underlying collateral and higher
expected losses for the pool. Moody's rating action on the Underlying
Certificate reflected a cumulative base expected loss of 17.9%
of the current balance.
Updates to key parameters, including the constant default rate (CDR),
constant prepayment rate (CPR), weighted average life (WAL),
and weighted average recovery rate (WARR), did not materially change
the expected loss estimates of Class A3-A and A3-B resulting
in an affirmation. The downgrade of Class A3-C was due to
deterioration in the credit quality of the underlying collateral.
Within the resecuritization, the weighted average life of the Underlying
Security is 3.55 years assuming a 0%/0% CDR/CPR.
For delinquent loans (30+ days, REO, foreclosure,
bankrupt), Moody's assumes a fixed WARR of 40% while a fixed
WARR of 50% for current loans. Moody's also ran a sensitivity
analysis on the classes assuming a WARR of 40% for current loans.
This impacts the modeled rating of the Certificates by 0 to 5 notches
downward.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in
the current macroeconomic environment given the weak pace of recovery
and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate
property values are continuing to move in a modestly positive direction
along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property
type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth
have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward
trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily
increases for a significant period, non-performing properties
are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession
are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with nine straight quarters of
growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand
with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Recovery
in the office sector continues at a measured pace with minimal additions
to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment,
where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the
leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are
outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail
sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past
four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven
by internet sales growth. Across all property sectors, the
availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization
activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy
of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario is for continued below-trend
growth in US GDP over the near term, with consumer spending remaining
soft in the US. Hurricane Sandy may skew near-term economic
data but is unlikely to have any long-term macroeconomic effects.
Primary downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession
in the euro area accompanied by deeper credit contraction; the potential
for a hard landing in major emerging markets, including China,
India and Brazil; an oil supply shock; albeit abated in recent
months; and given recent political gridlock, excessive fiscal
tightening in the US in 2013 leading the US into recession. However,
the Federal Reserve has shown signs of support for activity by continuing
with quantitative easing.
Moody's review incorporated the cash flow model, Structured
Finance Workstation® (SFW), developed by Moody's Wall Street
Analytics.
Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stress scenarios.
The methodological approach used in these ratings is as follows:
Moody's applied ratings-specific cash flow scenarios assuming different
loss timing, recovery and prepayment assumptions on the underlying
pool of mortgages that are the collateral for the underlying CMBS transaction
through Structured Finance Workstation® (SFW). The analysis
incorporates performance variances across the different pools and the
structural features of the transaction including priorities of payment
distribution among the different tranches, tranche average life,
current tranche balance and future cash flows under expected and stressed
scenarios. In each scenario, cash flows and losses from the
underlying collateral were analyzed applying different stresses at each
rating level. The resulting ratings specific stressed cash flows
were then input into the structure of the resecuritization to determine
expected losses for each class. The expected losses were then compared
to the idealized expected loss for each class to gauge the appropriateness
of the existing rating. The stressed assumptions considered,
among other factors, the underlying transaction's collateral attributes,
past and current performance, and Moody's current negative performance
outlook for commercial real estate.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating Repackaged Securities" published in April 2010. Please see
the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this
methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction
in the past six months.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Kumud Jha
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Michael Gerdes
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Affirms Two and Downgrades One Class of CSMC Series 2009-RR1