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Announcement:

Moody's: Belgium's banking system outlook changed to stable from negative

25 Nov 2013

Paris, November 25, 2013 -- The outlook for Belgium's banking system has been changed to stable from negative, says Moody's Investors Service in a new report published today.

Moody's says that the change reflects the likelihood that the operating environment will stabilise over the outlook period, supported by a slight recovery in the domestic economy. It also reflects the decline of legacy issues and restructuring operations that have taken a toll on the banks since 2008, and takes into account the banks' improved liquidity, as witnessed by their lower reliance on short-term and central bank funding over the past year.

The new report, entitled "Banking System Outlook: Belgium", is now available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release.

Moody's expects that over the 12-18 month outlook period, a modest return to growth in the Belgian economy in 2014 will help moderate the banks' asset-quality deterioration. However, the operating environment remains fragile. Both business and consumer confidence are low, despite a slight improvement in recent months, and unemployment is forecast to rise.

Losses on domestic loan portfolios will likely rise gradually from current low levels as a delayed result of earlier economic weakness, but the low indebtedness of Belgian companies and households should ensure that losses remain moderate. Although losses on some higher-risk non-domestic loan portfolios are stabilising, notably in Central and Eastern European countries, Belgian banks will still face pressures on their operations in Ireland and Hungary. Belgian banks' exposures to weak economies in the EU periphery still present some tail risks. However, Moody's says that these pressures are unlikely to be sufficient to impair the banks' standalone creditworthiness.

At the same time, Belgian banks have made good progress in managing legacy issues, such as large exposures to structured assets, and in restructuring their operations. This has helped strengthen and stabilise the banking system.

Moody's says that the banks' liquidity has improved substantially over the past year, and they rely less on short-term borrowing and central bank funding. The narrowing of banks' spreads that followed a fall in Belgian sovereign bond yields provided them with better access to long-term wholesale funding. Combined with their strong customer deposit base, they are now more resilient to market shocks than several other European banking systems.

However, the prospect of systemic support for stressed banks is weakening. The European Union's Bank Recovery and Resolution draft directive (BRRD) endorses this view, suggesting that support for senior creditors in all EU countries - including creditors of systemically important banks - is less certain, even where the sovereign has the resources to fund bank bailouts.

Subscribers can access this report via this link: https://www.moodys.com/research/Belgium-Government-of--PBC_160493

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Yasuko Nakamura
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Carola Schuler
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: Belgium's banking system outlook changed to stable from negative
No Related Data.
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