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Rating Action:

Moody's Changes the Outlook on Bupa's A2 IFSR to Positive from Stable

03 Sep 2015

London, 03 September 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service today affirmed the A2 Insurance Financial Strength Rating (IFSR) on Bupa Insurance Ltd (BINS), the main UK private medical insurance business of the wider Bupa Group (Bupa), and changed the outlook to positive from stable. The guaranteed junior subordinated debt rating of Baa1(hyb), the guaranteed senior unsecured debt ratings of Baa2 and unguaranteed subordinated debt rating of Baa3(hyb) issued by Bupa Finance Plc were also affirmed. The outlook on all debt ratings has also changed to positive from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The change of outlook to positive from stable reflects: (i) Bupa's geographically expanding footprint in private medical insurance (PMI), a product line with relatively low risk; (ii) improved financial results sustained by strong underwriting profitability; and (iii) the Group's strong track record in generating capital via retained earnings and good access to capital markets via debt issuances.

In terms of geographic diversification, the Group is a dominant player in various PMI markets globally, including the mature markets of Australia, the UK and Spain, complemented by a strong presence in emerging markets such as Poland, Chile, Thailand and Saudi Arabia. In addition, in recent years, targeted acquisitions have enabled the Group to continue growing whilst maintaining its top tier market position, as reflected in the 22% increase in revenues between 2011 and 2014. Furthermore Moody's views the very low product risk of PMI as a key credit strength for Bupa, given the short-tail nature of this business, with limited pandemic and catastrophe exposure. This, together with the diversification that comes with Bupa's leading market positions, reduces the Group's underwriting risk compared to property & casualty insurance peers, as reflected in the stability of the Group's operating results and cash-flows.

In terms of profitability, the positive outlook also reflects Moody's expectation that recent improvements are sustainable. In 2014 Bupa generated net income of GBP 523 million, a 27% increase from previous year, predominantly driven by profit contribution from recently acquired business, which equates to a 6.4% ROC (2013: 5.8%). Nevertheless, Moody's notes that the economic environment and trading conditions remain challenging in a number of Bupa's key markets, as reflected in the modest reduction in underlying profits in the first six months of 2015.

In terms of capitalisation, Moody's expects Bupa to be well positioned to meet its Solvency II capital requirements when the regime is implemented in January 2016. The Group's available capital was boosted by the issuance of GBP500m of subordinated debt in 2013, and Bupa has now an established track record of accessing debt markets when needed. Furthermore, Bupa has continuously demonstrated a strong ability to generate capital via retained earnings. More negatively, the Group's legal structure does not allow it to access public equity markets, which somewhat constrains financial flexibility when compared to its large publicly-quoted counterparts. A key driver of the Solvency II ratio will be the ultimate charge associated with underwriting PMI, where Bupa has applied for an undertaking specific parameter for premium risk for both the Group and BINS.

The A2 IFSR on BINS reflects Moody's view of the continued strong franchise, market position and financial performance of BINS, which generated net income of GBP 160 million with an excellent 5 year average return on capital (ROC) of 9.1% at YE2014.

Although no longer the largest insurance operating entity of the Group, BINS remains a key contributor to Group revenue and earnings, accounting for approximately 30% of both gross written premiums and net income for YE2014. In Moody's view, it is therefore an important subsidiary for the Group and Bupa would have both the willingness and ability to provide support to BINS if required. As such BINS' credit profile and consequently IFSR benefit from being part of the larger and more diverse Bupa. Similarly, debt issued by the intermediate holding company, Bupa Finance Plc, benefits from the relatively predictable and diverse cash-flows derived from the global insurance and non-insurance operating entities of the Bupa Group.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP / DOWN

Moody's notes that positive rating action could occur if: (1) Bupa Group's Solvency II ratio is above 180% on a sustainable basis under the standard formula; and/or (2) recent bottom line profitability improvements are sustained at a group level; and/or (3) recently acquired businesses are successfully integrated into the group and continue to grow profitably.

Conversely, the outlook could be revised to stable if: (1) Bupa Group's Solvency II capital coverage ratio is below 150% on a sustainable basis under the standard formula; and/or (2) financial leverage increases materially from the 34.4% level at YE14; and/or (3) there is a substantial sustained reduction in underwriting profitability.

The outlook on BINS may also be revised to stable if there is a material reduction in the Group's willingness or ability to support the UK PMI operation.

The following ratings were affirmed and outlook changed to positive from stable:

BUPA Insurance Ltd IFSR: A2

BUPA Finance Plc -- guaranteed junior subordinated debt: Baa1(hyb)

BUPA Finance Plc -- guaranteed senior unsecured debt: Baa2

BUPA Finance Plc-- unguaranteed subordinated debt: Baa3(hyb)

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Property and Casualty Insurers published in August 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Bupa is a global health care organisation headquarter in London. At HY15 it had total assets of GBP 12,098.5 million and shareholders' equity of GBP 5,348 million. For 2014, the group generated total revenues of GBP 9,778 million and net income of GBP 516 million.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Helena Pavicic
Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Antonello Aquino
Associate Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's Changes the Outlook on Bupa's A2 IFSR to Positive from Stable
No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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