Hong Kong, January 30, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the larger and financially healthy
Chinese property developers that Moody's rates will continue to
increase their overall market share in 2018 in anticipation of industry
consolidation, supported by their strong execution capabilities
and access to funding.
"The 29 Moody's tracked developers increased their overall
market share to 36.4% of nationwide contracted sales in
2017 from 26.5% in 2016," says Cedric Lai,
a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst.
Moody's rated a total of 56 Chinese developers as of 29 January
2018.
The top three tracked developers -- Country Garden Holdings Company
Limited (Ba1 stable), China Vanke Co., Ltd.
(Baa1 stable) and China Evergrande Group (B1 stable) -- raised their
combined market share in terms of sales value to 14.3% in
2017 from 10.6% in 2016.
"The contracted sales from rated developers rose 52.7%
year-on-year for full-year 2017, outpacing
the national sales growth of 11.3% year-on-year
in 2017," adds Lai.
Moody's analysis is contained in its just-released monthly China
Property Focus report, entitled "China Property Focus --
Rated developers' market share to grow further in 2018".
At the same time, Moody's expects that operating conditions
will remain challenging for developers over the next 6-12 months,
as the Chinese government will likely keep its tight regulatory measures
in place.
These measures -- aimed at curbing investment demand and speculation
-- also continued to constrain property price growth in Tier 1 and
major Tier 2 cities.
Property prices in China's four Tier 1 cities declined by 0.1%
in December 2017 from November, similar to the monthly rate of decline
recorded in November 2017. However, prices increased slightly
by 0.5% in Tier 2 cities over the same period, compared
to 0.4% growth in November 2017.
Meanwhile, inventory levels of residential properties in Tier 1
cities improved in December, falling to 10 months of stock in December
2017 from 13 months in November, mainly due to higher sales volumes
in these cities.
However, inventory levels in the Tier 2 cities that Moody's
tracks remained largely stable at seven months in December 2017.
Moody's believes overall inventory levels are still healthy and
manageable, thus reducing the risk of a material downward property
price correction in the Chinese market in the next 12 months.
Subscribers can access the report at:
http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1108712
The report may also be found through Moody's topic page "China's Trilemma:
Growth, Reform and Stability", available at http://www.moodys.com/chinarebalancing.
This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to
key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues
to unfold.
Recent Moody's publications relating to China's Trilemma include:
• Consumer loan ABS -- China: New regulations for internet-based
lending are credit positive
• Banks: China's tighter regulation on banks' entrusted
loans is credit positive
• Banks: China implements Basel Committee framework for controlling
large exposures, curtailing bank risk
• Asset Management: China's new capital requirements
on distressed asset management companies are credit positive
• State-owned enterprises (SOEs) -- China: Leverage
will continue to decline gradually for most rated SOEs through 2018
• Toll Roads -- China: Government policies support the
credit profiles of government-owned toll road companies
• Banks -- China: Asset quality pressure from corporate
borrowers eases as cash flows improve
• Banks: China's regulation on banks' liquidity
will help curtail shadow-banking
• Banks: China's regulation of internet-based
consumer finance is credit positive for banks
• Structured finance -- China, India and Korea:
2018 Outlook -- Delinquencies will remain low in China and Korea,
but performance will vary by sector in India
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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For
any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Cedric Lai
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077
Gary Lau
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077