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Research Announcement:

Moody's - Credit impact from Australian bushfires for government remains manageable, but recurring fiscal costs set to rise

13 January 2020


Singapore, January 13, 2020 --

  • Economic impact limited as bushfires primarily hit sparsely populated areas; states have adequate liquidity buffers and the general government a strong balance sheet
  • Increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters will contribute to recurring costs

Moody's Investors Service says in a new report that Australia's (Aaa stable) general and state governments can absorb the near-term credit impact from the ongoing bushfires, supported by their ample fiscal buffers.

However, over time, increasingly frequent and severe natural disasters related to climate change are likely to result in rising and recurring costs that will test the government's capacity to mitigate these costs.

"The 2019-20 bushfire season has been characterized by unprecedented levels of destruction, primarily concentrated in the state of New South Wales (Aaa stable) and to a lesser extent Victoria (Aaa stable), causing tragic loss of life. The fires will create direct costs, lost revenue and longer-term spending needs for both the general and local governments," says Martin Petch, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

"The immediate and primary credit implication for Australian states and local governments is the liquidity challenge resulting from the delay between incurring costs to address the fires and receiving reimbursements through joint funding arrangements with the Commonwealth," says John Manning, Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

Australian states and local governments bear primary responsibility for preventing, preparing for and responding to natural disasters. However, they can also rely on various Commonwealth tools to obtain reimbursement for up to 75% of the costs incurred, which significantly boosts their resilience in addressing climate hazards.

Given that reimbursements can take several years in some cases, the impact on states' liquidity is the main credit implication of the bushfires.

Moody's does not currently expect this liquidity pressure to be significant as most affected states maintain strong liquidity positions .

The costs also remain manageable for the general government, with the immediate fiscal costs expected to be less than 0.1% of Australia's GDP in 2020 and 2021. The economic impact is also limited as so far the bushfires have mainly hit sparsely populated areas. Moody's has revised its GDP growth forecast down slightly to 2.1% in 2020.

The more material costs for the general government will be related to recurring financial support to the states as climate change leads to more frequent and severe natural disasters. Moody's currently expects the government will be able to offset these recurring costs through higher revenue or other spending costs, although the rate and magnitude of such costs will become clearer over time and may lead the rating agency to revise its assessment.

This report forms part of a series of commentaries that Moody's has published on the credit impact of the Australian bushfires on various sectors including:

"Moody's - Bushfire insurance losses will mount but remain manageable for Australian P&C insurers": https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Bushfire-insurance-losses-will-mount-but-remain-manageable-for--PBC_1209800

"Moody's - Australian bushfires highlight rising exposure for RMBS to natural disaster risk": https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Australian-bushfires-highlight-rising-exposure-for-RMBS-to-natural--PBS_1209721

"Moody's - Bushfires pose manageable credit risks for Australian electricity networks": https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Bushfires-pose-manageable-credit-risks-for-Australian-electricity-networks--PBC_1209705

Subscribers can access the report "Environmental Risks – Australia: Bushfires have limited near-term credit impact for sovereign and states; climate change to contribute to recurring costs" at: http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1210178

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Martin Petch
VP-Sr Credit Officer
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

Marie Diron
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office :
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

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