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Announcement:

Moody's: Deleveraging Will Drive Strong Performance of UK Non-Conforming RMBS in 2016

10 Mar 2016

London, 10 March 2016 -- Deleveraging will be the main driver of UK non-conforming residential mortgage-backed securities in 2016, says Moody's Investors Service. The UK's economic recovery and robust housing market will support collateral performance.

"Deleveraging will drive the UK non-conforming sector's performance in 2016, cushioning against losses in a hypothetical severe recession scenario", says Emily Rombeau, an Analyst at Moody's.

"80% of upgrades in UK non-conforming RMBS in 2015 were due to deleveraging and improved collateral performance. By contrast, during the downturn in 2009, 45% of negative rating actions in the segment were triggered by collateral performance deterioration", notes Gaby Trinkaus, an Assistant Vice President and Analyst at Moody's.

Deals' exposure to Lehman Brothers have led to 26% of downgrades to date in the sector, while increased servicer disruption risk accounted for 21%.

Moody's report, entitled "Deleveraging Will Drive Strong Performance of UK Non-Conforming RMBS in 2016", is available on www.moodys.com. The rating agency's report is an update to the markets and does not constitute or announce a rating action.

The rating agency says servicer disruption risk will still constrain most senior tranches' creditworthiness, on the back of lowly or non-rated servicers and/or insufficient back-up arrangements. A disruption in servicer performance can significantly affect transaction performance. In particular, a servicing disruption event may result in a weakening of collection activities, leading to increased delinquencies, lower recoveries, and ultimately higher losses on the securitised pool of mortgage loans.

By contrast, deterioration in collateral performance would more likely affect junior and mezzanine tranches negatively because deleveraging partially or fully mitigates its impact on senior notes.

Subscribers can access the report at: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1014993

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Emily Rombeau
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Olga Gekht
VP - Sr Credit Officer/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
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Moody's: Deleveraging Will Drive Strong Performance of UK Non-Conforming RMBS in 2016
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