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Announcement:

Moody's: Despite improved 2010 performance, UK non-conforming RMBS has negative 2011 outlook

Global Credit Research - 26 Jan 2011

London, 26 January 2011 -- UK non-conforming RMBS performance improved in 2010, as demonstrated by decreasing arrears levels and an even more pronounced drop in repossession rates, says Moody's Investors Service in a new report entitled "EMEA Non-Conforming RMBS: Review 2010 & Outlook 2011". Nonetheless, given the uncertain long-term performance trends, Moody's maintains a negative outlook on the sector.

The improved performance trend in the sector in 2010 coincided with: (i) a stabilisation in unemployment levels; (ii) historically low interest rate levels; and (iii) borrower-friendly regulation initiatives, which have prompted servicers to consider repossession as a measure of last resort. However, refinancing opportunities for non-conforming borrowers remain limited and redemption rates have continued to decline. Limited remortgaging opportunities will keep redemptions below pre-crisis levels, unless a wider range of non-conforming products returns to the market. In this case, Moody's believes that non-conforming portfolios will remain outstanding for longer, thereby pushing up total losses on mortgage portfolios.

Since the beginning of the crisis, Moody's has raised its expected portfolio loss assumptions on average to 5.2% and 6.4% of the original portfolio balance respectively for the 2006 and 2007 UK vintages. As a consequence, non-conforming RMBS has experienced high rating migration relative to other sectors in EMEA, although it remains significantly lower than for Alt-A and subprime RMBS in the US. Performance stabilisation has contributed to a fall in rating migration in 2010 compared with 2009. However, rating migration levels for Aaa notes have remained largely flat in 2010 as a result of rating actions driven by operational risks. In addition, we estimate that senior ratings in approximately 20 transactions in this sector will be impacted by the Operational Risk Methodology (publication expected in February 2011) based on the Request for Comment on Global Structured Finance Operational Risk Guidelines published in December 2010.

Moody's currently maintains a negative outlook for UK non-conforming RMBS. Uncertainty regarding the long-term performance trends in the sector remains, considering the: (i) persistent high delinquency levels; (ii) limited refinancing opportunities; (iii) weak house price trends; (iv) potential payment shock stemming from future interest rate increases; and (v) impact of austerity measures in public spending. Legal uncertainties also remain, pending the legal proceedings relating to the application of the balance sheet test and the effectiveness of Post Enforcement Call Options (PECOs) in transactions with UK issuers and unlimited recourse notes.

The report entitled "EMEA Non-Conforming RMBS: Review 2010 & Outlook 2011" is now available on www.moodys.com.

In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

London
Giacomo Bonetti
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Paris
Annick Poulain
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
Moody's France SAS
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SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
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Moody's: Despite improved 2010 performance, UK non-conforming RMBS has negative 2011 outlook
No Related Data.
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