New York, March 08, 2012 -- The following release represents Moody's Investors Service's summary
credit opinion on Popular Inc. and includes certain regulatory
disclosures regarding its ratings. This release does not constitute
any change in Moody's ratings or rating rationale for Popular Inc.
and its affiliates.
Moody's current ratings on Popular Inc. and its affiliates
are:
Senior Unsecured MTN Program (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba1
Subordinate MTN Program (domestic currency) (P) ratings of Ba2
Preferred Stock Non-cumulative (domestic currency) ratings of B2;
(hyb)
Senior Unsecured Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba1
Subordinate Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba2
Junior Subordinate Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)B1
Preferred Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)B2
Popular International Bank, Inc.
BACKED Senior Unsecured Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba1
BACKED Subordinate Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba2
Popular North America, Inc.
BACKED Senior Unsecured (domestic currency) ratings of Ba1
BACKED Senior Unsecured MTN Program (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba1
BACKED Subordinate MTN Program (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba2
BACKED Senior Unsecured Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba1
BACKED Subordinate Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)Ba2
Popular North America Capital Trust II
BACKED Preferred Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)B1
Popular North America Capital Trust III
BACKED Preferred Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)B1
Popular Capital Trust I
BACKED Preferred Stock (domestic currency) ratings of B1; (hyb)
BACKED Preferred Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)B1
Popular Capital Trust II
BACKED Preferred Stock (domestic currency) ratings of B1; (hyb)
BACKED Preferred Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)B1
Popular Capital Trust III
BACKED Preferred Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)B1
Popular Capital Trust IV
BACKED Preferred Shelf (domestic currency) ratings of (P)B1
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's assigns a standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of
D+ to Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, the lead bank subsidiary
of Puerto Rico-based Popular, Inc. (Popular,
Inc. and its subsidiaries are referred to collectively hereafter
as "Popular".) The D+ standalone BFSR corresponds to a baseline
credit assessment (BCA) of Baa3. Given Popular's dominant market
position in Puerto Rico, together with the island's physical isolation
and political importance, we believe that the lead bank benefits
from some probability of systemic support in the event it is needed.
However, at Popular's current standalone rating level, the
low probability of support that we ascribe to the bank does not result
in any ratings lift. Therefore, Popular's long-term
deposit rating is equal to its BCA of Baa3. No systemic support
is factored into the ratings of the holding company, which is rated
Ba1 for senior debt.
Popular's D+ standalone BFSR reflects the continued asset quality
challenges it faces in Puerto Rico. Like most of the other banks
on the island, Popular's financial fundamentals have been severely
affected by the ongoing local recession, which began in 2006.
Although we expect a modest improvement in the Puerto Rico economy in
2012, Popular's credit costs, arising principally from its
island-based and mainland commercial portfolios and its mainland
residential mortgage portfolio, will likely remain elevated.
The standalone rating also incorporates the strength of Popular's leading
Puerto Rican direct banking franchise and its healthy capital position.
Popular is the largest commercial bank in Puerto Rico by a significant
margin, and it commands a leading market position in many deposit
and loan products that serve both retail and commercial customers.
Rating Outlook
The outlook on Popular and its subsidiaries is negative, reflecting
the risk that a longer, deeper recession in Puerto Rico would put
additional pressure on the company's financial fundamentals.
What Could Change the Rating - Up
We see little possibility of an upgrade in the near- to medium-term
given the negative outlook. Over time, Popular would have
to show sustained improvement in its asset quality and profitability metrics
while maintaining strong capital ratios for positive rating pressure to
emerge.
What Could Change the Rating - Down
A lack of sustainable improvement in Popular's asset quality could
result in negative rating pressure. This is reflected in the negative
outlook.
The methodologies used in these ratings were Bank Financial Strength Ratings:
Global Methodology published in February 2007, Incorporation of
Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings: A
Refined Methodology published in March 2007, and Moody's Guidelines
for Rating Hybrid Securities and Subordinated Debt published on November
2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of these methodologies.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Although these credit ratings have been issued in a non-EU country
which has not been recognized as endorsable at this date, the credit
ratings are deemed "EU qualified by extension" and may still
be used by financial institutions for regulatory purposes until 30 April
2012. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the
Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available
on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, public information, confidential
and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and
confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of
issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it
uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%)
and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may
exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names
of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported
to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%.
A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a
member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation;
however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating
Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on
the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and
recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on
which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's
ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available.
Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is
the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available
to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has
issued the rating.
Joseph Pucella
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Robert Young
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Disclosures on Credit Ratings of Popular Inc.