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Announcement:

Moody's: Downgrade of Asian investment grade companies into high yield would likely raise refinancing risk for corporates rated B2 or lower

16 Dec 2016

Singapore, December 16, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service says that 12 companies in Asia (ex-Japan) are now rated Baa3 with a negative outlook. If these companies were to be downgraded, the maturity wall for rated high-yield bonds will increase by $2.7 billion between 2017 and 2019.

"We believe the refinancing needs of these 12 companies, following a downgrade into high-yield, could have the effect of crowding out or increasing the cost of refinancing for companies with bonds rated B2 or lower, given the limited depth of the rated high-yield market in Asia," says Brian Grieser, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

"Nevertheless, we expect that the rated high-yield bond market will have the capacity to absorb these incremental maturities, if downgraded," adds Grieser.

Moody's analysis is contained in its just-released report titled "High-Yield -- Asia (Ex-Japan) Downgrades of Investment Grade Companies to High Yield Would Raise Refinancing Risk for Low-Rated Issuers," and is authored by Grieser.

Moody's report says that the number of companies most at risk of losing their investment-grade ratings stands at 12 in December 2016 from four at end-2015. While this number is lower than the record high of 16 in June 2016, it remains well above the historical average of four since 2008.

Moody's notes that if the 12 companies are downgraded, the biggest impact would be felt in 2018, with high-yield rated bond maturities increasing 19% or $1.7 billion.

And, the total refinancing needs for rated high-yield bonds would increase to $7.4 billion, $11.2 billion and $16.3 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019; amounts which are manageable when compared with the $14.4 billion average annual issuance of rated high-yield bonds since 2010.

Chinese companies account for eight of the 12 companies, and of the eight, six are state-owned enterprises. The rise in the number of companies rated Baa3 negative, is driven by a either a deterioration in the companies' standalone credit profiles and/or the potential for weaker government or parental support.

Moody's report also says that the number of companies at risk of moving into high yield will likely remain high over the next 18 months. Moody's downgraded a total of five companies in Asia to high-yield from investment grade in 2016. This number is the highest since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. The five downgrades added $2.6 billion of rated bond maturities to the 2017-2019 Asian rated high-yield refinancing wall.

Subscribers can access the report at

https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1040342

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Brian Grieser
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Laura Acres
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

No Related Data.
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