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Rating Action:

Moody's Downgrades Eight and Affirms Seven CMBS Classes of GCCFC 2004-GG1

20 Dec 2012

Approximately $1.3 Billion of Structured Securities Affected

New York, December 20, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) downgraded the ratings of eight classes and affirmed seven classes of Greenwich Capital Commercial Funding Corp., Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2004-GG1 as follows:

Cl. A-7, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 9, 2011 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 9, 2011 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 9, 2011 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Affirmed at Aa2 (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)

Cl. E, Affirmed at A1 (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. F, Affirmed at Baa1 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa1 (sf)

Cl. G, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa2 (sf)

Cl. H, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)

Cl. J, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba1 (sf)

Cl. K, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba2 (sf)

Cl. L, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)

Cl. M, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned B1 (sf)

Cl. N, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)

Cl. O, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)

Cl. XC, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

The downgrades are due to higher expected losses for the pool resulting from realized and anticipated losses from specially serviced and troubled loans.

The affirmations of the principal classes are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the Herfindahl Index (Herf), remaining within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their current ratings.

The rating of the IO class, Class XC, is consistent with the expected credit performance of its referenced classes and thus is affirmed.

Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 5.8% of the current balance. At last review, Moody's base expected loss was 2.6%. Moody's provides a current list of base losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.

Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment given the weak pace of recovery and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a modestly positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.

The hotel sector is performing strongly with nine straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Recovery in the office sector continues at a measured pace with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by internet sales growth. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.

Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario is for continued below-trend growth in US GDP over the near term, with consumer spending remaining soft in the US. Hurricane Sandy may skew near-term economic data but is unlikely to have any long-term macroeconomic effects. Primary downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area accompanied by deeper credit contraction; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets, including China, India and Brazil; an oil supply shock; albeit abated in recent months; and given recent political gridlock, excessive fiscal tightening in the US in 2013 leading the US into recession. However, the Federal Reserve has shown signs of support for activity by continuing with quantitative easing.

The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating U.S. CMBS Conduit Transactions" published in September 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.61 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a paydown analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade credit assessments is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the credit assessment of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the credit assessment level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit assessments in the same transaction.

Moody's review also incorporated the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit assessments; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point . For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.

Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 26 compared to 29 at Moody's prior review.

Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.

The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through two sets of quantitative tools -- MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) and CMM (Commercial Mortgage Metrics) on Trepp -- and on a periodic basis through a comprehensive review. Moody's prior full review is summarized in a press release dated January 6, 2012. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.

DEAL PERFORMANCE

As of the December 12, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 49% to $1.4 billion from $2.63 billion at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 90 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 8% of the pool, with the top ten non-defeased or non-specially serviced loans representing 33% of the pool. Fourteen loans, representing 34% of the pool, have defeased and are secured by U.S. Government securities.

Twenty-two loans, representing 12% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact performance.

Ten loans have been liquidated from the pool, resulting in a realized loss of $27 million (22% loss severity overall). Currently five loans, representing 10% of the pool, are in special servicing. Moody's has estimated an aggregate $52 million loss (40% expected loss on average) for the specially serviced loans.

The largest specially-serviced loan is the Aegon Center Loan ($104.0 million -- 7.7% of the pool), which is secured by a 633,650 square foot (SF) Class A office building located in downtown Louisville, Kentucky. It is the tallest building in the entire state and is attached to a 5-level, 900-space garage. As of December 2012, the property was 94% leased, the same as at last review. Major tenants currently include Aegon N.V. (Moody's senior unsecured rating A3 - stable outlook; 20% of the NRA; lease expiration in December 2012), Frost Brown Todd (18% of the NRA; lease expiration in 2020) and Stites and Harbison (13% of the NRA; lease expiration in 2024). With Aegon's upcoming departure the occupancy at the property will drop to 74%. The loan was transferred to special servicing in March 2012 for to imminent monetary default due to Aegon's lease expiring in December 2012. The loan's initial 60-month interest-only period has expired and the loan has amortized approximately 4% since securitization.

The remaining four specially serviced loans are secured by a mix of commercial property types. Moody's estimates an aggregate $52 million loss (39.8% expected loss on average) for all specially serviced loans.

Moody's has assumed a high default probability for 11 poorly performing loans representing 7% of the pool and has estimated an aggregate $14.9 million loss (15% expected loss based on a 50% probability default) from these troubled loans.

Moody's was provided with full year 2011 operating results for 99% of the pool. Excluding specially serviced, troubled and defeased loans, Moody's weighted average LTV is 84% compared to 92% at last review. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 12% to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.7%.

Excluding specially serviced, troubled and defeased loans, Moody's actual and stressed DSCRs are 1.48X and 1.31X, respectively, compared to 1.38X and 1.20X at last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.

The top three performing conduit loans represent 13% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the Southland Mall Loan ($75.5 million -- 5.4% of the pool), which is secured by a 1.3 million SF regional mall (collateral is 1.01 MM SF) located between Oakland and San Jose in Hayward, California. Ownership was transferred to Rouse Properties in a spin-off of non-core assets by GGP. Non-collateral anchors include JCPenney, Kohl's, Macy's, and Sears. As of June 2012, the in-line space was 91% occupied as compared to 92% at last review. The trailing 12-month September 2012 comp in-line sales were $311 PSF compared to $290 PSF at last review and $333/SF at securitization. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 73% and 1.42X, respectively, compared to 75% and 1.33X at last review.

The second largest loan is the New Roc City Loan ($57.1 million -- 4.2% of the pool), which is secured by a 446,076 SF lifestyle retail center located in New Rochelle, New York. As of June 2012, the property was 94% leased, the same as at last review. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 86% and 1.23X, respectively, compared to 92% and 1.15X at last review.

The third largest loan is the Severance Town Center Loan ($40.7 million -- 3.0% of the pool), which is secured by a 644,501 SF enclosed shopping center located in Cleveland Heights, Ohio. As of June 2012, the property was 87% leased as compared to 92% at last review. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 98% and 0.99X, respectively, compared to 114% and 0.85X at last review.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Kimberly Brown
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Keith Banhazl
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Downgrades Eight and Affirms Seven CMBS Classes of GCCFC 2004-GG1
No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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