Approximately $805.1 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, January 20, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) downgraded the ratings of four classes
and affirmed 20 classes of LB-UBS Commercial Mortgage Trust 2003-C3,
Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2003-C3
as follows:
Cl. A-3, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on
Jun 30, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-4, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on
Jun 30, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. B, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 20,
2006 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Cl. C, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Apr 20,
2006 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Cl. D, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 17,
2009 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Cl. E, Affirmed at Aa1 (sf); previously on Jun 17,
2009 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. F, Affirmed at Aa2 (sf); previously on Jun 17,
2009 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Cl. G, Affirmed at A1 (sf); previously on Jun 17,
2009 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
Cl. H, Affirmed at A3 (sf); previously on Jun 17,
2009 Upgraded to A3 (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at Baa1 (sf); previously on Jun 17,
2009 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Cl. K, Affirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Jun 30,
2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
Cl. L, Affirmed at Ba1 (sf); previously on Jun 30,
2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba1 (sf)
Cl. M, Affirmed at Ba2 (sf); previously on Jun 30,
2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba2 (sf)
Cl. N, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jun 30,
2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)
Cl. P, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jun 30,
2003 Definitive Rating Assigned B1 (sf)
Cl. Q, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Jun 30,
2003 Definitive Rating Assigned B2 (sf)
Cl. S, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Feb 16,
2011 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. X-CL, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on
Jun 30, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. X-WC, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on
Jun 30, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. X-MM1, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on
Jun 30, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. MM-1, Affirmed at Caa1 (sf); previously on
Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. MM-2, Affirmed at Caa2 (sf); previously on
Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. MM-3, Affirmed at Caa3 (sf); previously on
Feb 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. X-MM2, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on
Jun 30, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrades are due to higher expected losses for the pool resulting
from realized and anticipated losses from troubled loans.
The affirmations are due to key parameters, including Moody's
loan to value (LTV) ratio, and Moody's stressed debt service
coverage ratio (DSCR), and the Herfindahl Index (Herf) remaining
within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss,
the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient
to maintain their current ratings.
Moody's rating action reflects a cumulative base expected loss of
2.6% of the current balance. At last review,
Moody's cumulative base expected loss was 1.7%.
Moody's provides a current list of base and stress scenario losses
for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255.
Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of
losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level
for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels.
Due to the high level of credit subordination and defeasance, it
is unlikely that investment grade classes would be downgraded even if
losses are higher than Moody's expected base.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of the slowdown
in growth in the current macroeconomic environment and the commercial
real estate property markets. While commercial real estate property
markets are gaining momentum, a consistent upward trend will not
be evident until the volume of transactions increases, distressed
properties are cleared from the pipeline and job creation rebounds.
The hotel and multifamily sectors are in recovery and improvements in
the office sector continue, with fundamentals in Gateway cities
outperforming their suburban counterparts. However, office
demand is closely tied to employment, where fundamentals remain
weak, so significant improvement may be delayed. Performance
in the retail sector has been mixed with on-going rent deflation
and leasing challenges. Across all property sectors, the
availability of debt capital continues to improve with monetary policy
expected to remain supportive and interest rate hikes postponed.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario reflects an overall downward
revision of forecasts since last quarter, amidst ongoing fiscal
consolidation efforts, household and banking sector deleveraging,
persistently high unemployment levels, and weak housing markets
that will continue to constrain growth.
The principal methodologies used in this rating were "CMBS: Moody's
Approach to Rating Fusion Transactions" published in April 2005,
and "Moody's Approach to Rating Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions"
published in July 2000. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's noted that on November 22, 2011, it released a Request
for Comment, in which the rating agency has requested market feedback
on potential changes to its rating methodology for Interest-Only
Securities. If the revised methodology is implemented as proposed
the rating on LB-UBS 2000-C3 Classes X-CL,
X-WC, X-MM1 and X-MM2 may be negatively affected.
Please refer to Moody's request for Comment, titled "Proposal Changing
the Global Rating Methodology for Structured Finance Interest-Only
Securities," for further details regarding the implications of the
proposed methodology change on Moody's rating. Please see the Credit
Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology
and the Request for Comment.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS
Conduit Model v 2.60 which is used for both conduit and fusion
transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven
by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR,
and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization
rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit
model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a paydown analysis based
on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's
Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity,
is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact
on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may
be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit
enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit
classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined
based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points.
For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade
credit estimates is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into
an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based
on the credit estimate of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit
enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are
selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other
concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling,
or adding credit enhancement at the credit estimate level, is incorporated
for loans with similar credit estimates in the same transaction.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size,
where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration
has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including
risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances.
The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 10
compared to 11 at Moody's prior review.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers
both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the
rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance
of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's
monitors transactions on a monthly basis through two sets of quantitative
tools -- MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) and CMM
(Commercial Mortgage Metrics) on Trepp -- and on a periodic
basis through a comprehensive review. Please see the ratings tab
on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action
and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the January 18, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's
aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 39% to $817.9
million from $1.35 billion at securitization. The
Certificates are collateralized by 79 mortgage loans ranging in size from
less than 1% to 16% of the pool, with the top ten
loans representing 65% of the pool. The pool includes three
loans, representing 40% of the pool, with investment-grade
credits estimates. Fifteen loans, representing 15%
of the pool, have defeased and are collateralized with U.S.
Government securities.
Twelve loans, representing 17% of the pool, are on
the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans
which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of
the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part
of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the
watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact
performance.
Five loan have been liquidated from the pool since securitization,
resulting in a $5.5 million loss (38% loss severity
overall). Currently, there are four loans in special servicing,
representing 1% of the pool. Moody's has estimated
an aggregate $5.5 million loss for the specially serviced
loans (52% overall expected loss).
Moody's has assumed a high default probability for three poorly
performing loans representing 1% of the pool and has estimated
an aggregate $1.98 million loss (20% expected loss
based on a 50% probability default) for the troubled loans.
Moody's was provided with full year 2010 and partial 2011 operating
results for 98% and 97%, respectively, for the
non-defeased pool. Excluding specially serviced and troubled
loans, Moody's weighted average conduit LTV is 90%
compared to 86% at last review. Moody's net cash flow
reflects a weighted average haircut of 12% to the most recently
available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a
weighted average capitalization rate of 9.6%.
Excluding specially serviced and troubled loans, Moody's actual
and stressed DSCRs are 1.27X and 1.22X, respectively,
compared to 1.33X and 1.23X at last review. Moody's
actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's
actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's
NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
The largest loan with a credit estimate is the Westfield Shoppingtown
West County Loan ($125.4 million -- 16% of the
pool), which is secured by the borrower's interest in a 1.3
million square foot regional mall located in Des Peres, Missouri.
The center is also encumbered by a $19.8 million B-Note
that is held outside the trust. The mall is anchored by Macy's,
J.C. Penney and Nordstrom. As of September 2011,
the center was 98% leased compared 96% at last review.
Annualized September 2011 net operating income (NOI) was 5% higher
than in 2010 due to rent step-ups. The loan has amortized
2% since last review. The sponsor is CBL & Associates.
Moody's current credit estimate and stressed DSCR are A1 and 1.52X,
respectively, compared to A1 and 1.45X at last review.
The second largest loan with a credit estimate is the Polaris Fashion
Place Loan ($103.5 million -- 13% of the pool),
which is secured by the borrower's interest in a 1.6 million square
foot regional mall located in Columbus, Ohio. The property
is also encumbered by a $24.8 million B-Note that
is held outside the trust. The mall is anchored by Sears,
Macy's, J.C. Penney, Saks Fifth Avenue,
Van Maur and The Great Indoors. As of November 2011, the
in-line mall was 99% leased compared to 98% at last
review. Since last review, the mall's performance has
improved with net operating income increasing by approximately 8%
in 2010 from 2009. The sponsor is Glimcher Realty. Moody's
current credit estimate and stressed DSCR are A2 and 1.65X,
respectively, compared to A2 and 1.53X at last review.
The third largest loan with a credit estimate is the Pembroke Lakes Mall
Loan ($95.0 million -- 12% of the pool),
which is secured by the borrower's interest in a 1.1 million square
foot regional mall located in Pembroke Pines, Florida. The
property is also encumbered by a $27.2 million B-Note
that is held outside the trust. The sponsor is General Growth Properties
(GGP). This loan was not included in GGP's Chapter 11 bankruptcy
filing in April 2009. The mall is anchored by Macy's, J.C.
Penney, Dillard's, Sears, Dillard's Men, and Macy's
Home Store. As of September 2011, the in-line space
was 89% leased compared to 91% at last review. The
performance remains stable. Moody's current credit estimate and
stressed DSCR are Aaa and 2.14X, essentially the same as
at last review.
The top three conduit loans represent 19% of the pool. The
largest conduit loan is the Monroeville Mall Loan ($92.9
million -- 12% of pool), which is secured by the borrower's
interest in a 1.3 million square foot regional mall located in
Monroeville, Pennsylvania. The property is also encumbered
by a $16.7 million B Note that is held within the trust
and serves as security for non-pooled Classes MM-1,
MM-2, MM-3, M-MM1 and X-MM2.
The mall is anchored by Macy's and J.C. Penney. The
former Boscov's anchor space, which is not part of the collateral,
remains vacant. As of October 2011, the in-line occupancy
was 95% compared to 90% at last review. However,
excluding tenants with one-year leases or less that expire in 2012,
the in-line occupancy is approximately 86%. Overall,
the mall's performance continues to deteriorate due to a decline
in base revenue, percentage rents and expense recoveries.
According to the Master Servicer's watch list, the mall has
been negatively impacted by the recession and by the increase in competition
from new and existing retail properties in the vicinity. The loan
has an anticipated repayment date (ARD) of January 1, 2013.
The sponsor is CBL & Associates. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR
for the A note are 106% and 0.94X, respectively,
compared to 92% and 1.06X at last review.
The second largest conduit loan is the Broadcasting Square Loan ($43.9
million -- 5.5% of the pool), which is secured
by a 467,000 square foot power center located in Reading,
Pennsylvania. The center is shadow anchored by Target, which
is not part of the collateral. The largest tenants are Weis Market,
Dick's Clothing & Sports, and Bed Bath & Beyond.
As of September 2011, the center was 99% leased, essentially
the same as at last review. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 76%
and 1.43X, respectively, compared to 77% and
1.41X at last review.
The third largest conduit loan is the Lynnfield Office Park ($15.1
million -- 1.9% of the pool), which is secured
by a 280,000 square foot office property located in Memphis,
Tennessee. First Tennessee Bank is the largest tenant and leases
43% of the net rentable area . As of October 2011,
the property was 79% leased compared to 82% at last review.
At last review, the net cash flow was stressed due to the possibility
that First Tennessee Bank lease would vacate at the end of its lease term.
The tenant has since renewed its lease through 2018. Moody's LTV
and stressed DSCR are 109% and 1.0X, respectively,
compared to 129% and 0.86X at last review.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Although this credit rating has been issued in a non-EU country
which has not been recognized as endorsable at this date, this credit
rating is deemed "EU qualified by extension" and may still
be used by financial institutions for regulatory purposes until 31 January
2012. ESMA may extend the use of credit ratings for regulatory
purposes in the European Community for three additional months,
until 30 April 2012, if ESMA decides that exceptional circumstances
arise that may imply potential market disruption or financial instability.
Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's
office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings,
public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's
Analytics information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction
in the past six months.
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entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing
a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it
uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's
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Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and
for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist
between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of
entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to
the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A
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Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process
page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time
before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not
be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that
it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information
that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page
on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Juan Acosta
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Michael M. Gerdes
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Downgrades Four and Affirms 20 CMBS Classes of LB-UBS 2003-C3