Approximately $236.8 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, February 08, 2011 -- Moody's has downgraded one class of Notes issued by Newcastle CDO VI,
Ltd. due to the deterioration in the credit quality of the underlying
portfolio as evidenced by an increase in the weighted average rating factor
(WARF), and and increase in Defaulted Securities. The rating
action is the result of Moody's on-going surveillance of
commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation (CRE CDO) transactions.
Class I-MM Floating Rate Notes, Downgraded to B1 (sf);
previously on Feb 24, 2010 Downgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Newcastle CDO VI, Ltd. is a CRE CDO transaction backed by
a portfolio of conduit, large loan and rake classes of commercial
mortgage backed securities (CMBS) (60.5%), subprime
residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) (20.6%),
REIT debt (16.0%), term loans (2.5%),
and small business loans (0.4%). As of the January
18, 2011 Trustee report, the aggregate Note balance of the
transaction has decreased to $419.2 million from $500.0
million at issuance, with the principal paydown directed to the
Class I-MM Notes. The paydowns are a result of the failure
of the Class I, Class II, Class II, and Class IV Par
Value Tests. Per the Indenture dated April 5, 2005,
upon the failure of any Par Value Test, all scheduled interest and
principal payments are directed to pay down the notes in a senior sequential
manner, until the failed Par Value Test is satisfied. Additionally,
there is currently approximately $5.4 million in accrued
interest proceeds to Class II, Class III, Class IV,
and Class V notes.
There are twenty assets with par balance of $96.3 million
(26.0% of the current pool balance) that are considered
Defaulted Securities as of the January 18, 2010 Trustee report.
Thirteen of these assets (37.0% of the defaulted balance)
are RMBS, five assets are CMBS (50.5%), one
asset is REIT (12.5%), and one asset is a small business
loan (1.7%). While there have been no realized losses
to date, Moody's does expect significant losses to occur once
they are realized.
Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the
expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: WARF, weighted
average life (WAL), weighted average recovery rate (WARR),
and Moody's asset correlation (MAC). These parameters are typically
modeled as actual parameters for static deals and as covenants for managed
WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool.
We have completed updated credit estimates for the non-Moody's
rated reference obligations. The bottom-dollar WARF is a
measure of the default probability within a collateral pool. Moody's
modeled a bottom-dollar WARF of 2,362 (excluding defaulted
securities) compared to 1,603 at last review. The distribution
of current ratings and credit estimates (excluding defaulted securities)
is as follows: Aaa-Aa3 (14.1% compared to 5.5%
at last review), A1-A3 (12.0% compared to 9.2%
at last review) Baa1-Baa3 (16.3%compared to 22.3%
at last review), Ba1-Ba3 (19.6% compared to
20.7% at last review), B1-B3 (19.3%
compared to 18.2% at last review), and Caa1-C
(18.7% compared to 24.4% at last review).
WAL acts to adjust the probability of default of the reference obligations
in the pool for time. Moody's modeled to a WAL, excluding
defaulted securities, of 3.7 years compared to 4.5
years at last review.
WARR is the par-weighted average of the mean recovery values for
the collateral assets in the pool. Moody's modeled a fixed
WARR, excluding defaulted securities, of 22.0%
compared to 22.7% at last review.
MAC is a single factor that describes the pair-wise asset correlation
to the default distribution among the instruments within the collateral
pool (i.e. the measure of diversity). Moody's
modeled a MAC of 12.7% compared to 25.6% at
last review. The low MAC is due to higher default probability collateral
concentrated within a small number of collateral names.
Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.8, one of Moody's
CDO rating models, which was released on January 24, 2011.
The cash flow model, CDOEdge® v18.104.22.168,
was used to analyze the cash flow waterfall and its effect on the capital
structure of the deal.
Changes in any one or combination of the key parameters may have rating
implications on certain classes of rated notes. However,
in many instances, a change in key parameter assumptions in certain
stress scenarios may be offset by a change in one or more of the other
key parameters. Rated notes are particularly sensitive to changes
in recovery rate assumptions. Holding all other key parameters
static, changing the recovery rate assumption down from 22%
to 12% or up to 32% would result in average rating movement
on the rated tranches of 1 notch downward and 1 notch upward, respectively.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics. Primary sources
of assumption uncertainty are the current sluggish macroeconomic environment
and varying performance in the commercial real estate property markets.
However, Moody's expects to see increasing or stabilizing property
values, higher transaction volumes, a slowing in the pace
of loan delinquencies and greater liquidity for commercial real estate
in 2011 The hotel and multifamily sectors are continuing to show signs
of recovery, while recovery in the office and retail sectors will
be tied to recovery of the broader economy. The availability of
debt capital continues to improve with terms returning toward market norms.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario reflects an overall sluggish
recovery through 2012, amidst ongoing individual, corporate
and governmental deleveraging, persistent unemployment, and
government budget considerations.
The principal methodologies used in this rating were "CMBS: Moody's
Approach to Rating Static CDOs Backed by Commercial Real Estate Securities"
published in June 2004, and "Moody's Approach to Rating SF
CDOs" published in November 2010.
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available
on www.moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes
a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies,
available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
Moody's Investors Service did not receive or take into account a third-party
due diligence report on the underlying assets or financial instruments
related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings,
public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's
Moody's Investors Service considers the quality of information available
on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining
a credit rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to
a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized
and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's
Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable
and accurate based on the information that is available to it.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies
used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Downgrades One CRE CDO Class of Newcastle CDO VI, Ltd.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007