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I AGREE
17 Dec 2010
Approximately $62.1 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, December 17, 2010 -- Moody's has downgraded one class of Notes issued by Seawall SPC --
Series 2008 CMBS CDO-2 (Seawall SPC -- Paired Notes) due to
the deterioration in the credit quality of the underlying reference obligations
as evidenced by an increase in the weighted average rating factor (WARF).
The rating action is the result of Moody's on-going surveillance
of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation (CRE CDO) transactions.
Cl. A , Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Feb 19,
2010 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Seawall SPC -- Paired Notes is a synthetic credit linked note (CLN)
back by two reference obligations of commercial mortgage backed securities
(CMBS). The reference obligations are AJ classes from the BACM
2007-3 and BSCMS 2007-PWR16 conduit-fusion transactions.
The aggregate collateral par amount is $62 million, the same
as at securitization. There have been no pay-downs or losses
to the collateral pool.
Neither of the two reference obligations are considered defaulted securities.
Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the
expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: WARF, weighted
average life (WAL), weighted average recovery rate (WARR),
and Moody's asset correlation (MAC). These parameters are typically
modeled as actual parameters for static deals and as covenants for managed
deals.
WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool.
We have completed updated credit estimates for the non-Moody's
rated reference obligations. The bottom-dollar WARF is a
measure of the default probability within a collateral pool. Moody's
modeled a bottom-dollar WARF of 2,050 compared to 1,875
at last review. The distribution of current ratings and credit
estimates is as follows: Baa1-Baa3 (50.0% compared
to 50.0% at last review) and B1-B3 (50.0%
compared to 50.0% at last review).
WAL acts to adjust the probability of default of the reference obligations
in the pool for time. Moody's modeled to a WAL of 5.3 years
compared to 6.1 years at last review.
WARR is the par-weighted average of the mean recovery values for
the reference obligation s in the pool. Moody's modeled a
fixed WARR of 25.0%, the same as at last review.
MAC is a single factor that describes the pair-wise asset correlation
to the default distribution among the instruments within the collateral
pool (i.e. the measure of diversity). Moody's
modeled a MAC of 74.5% compared to 71.4% at
last review.
The principal methodologies used in these ratings were "U.S.
CMBS: Moody's Approach to Rating Synthetic CMBS Resecuritizations"
published in December 2005, and "Moody's Approach to Rating
SF CDOs" published in November 2010.
Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.6, one of Moody's
CDO rating models, which was released on May 27, 2010.
Changes in any one or combination of the key parameters may have rating
implications on certain classes of rated notes. However,
in many instances, a change in key parameter assumptions in certain
stress scenarios may be offset by a change in one or more of the other
key parameters. Rated notes are particularly sensitive to changes
in recovery rate assumptions. Holding all other key parameters
static, changing the recovery rate assumption down from 25%
to 15% or up to 35% would result in average rating movement
on the rated tranches of 0 notches downward and 1 notches upward,
respectively.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics. Primary sources
of assumption uncertainty are the current stressed macroeconomic environment
and continuing weakness in the commercial real estate and lending markets.
Moody's currently views the commercial real estate market as stressed
with further performance declines expected in a majority of property sectors.
The availability of debt capital is improving with terms returning towards
market norms. Job growth and housing price stability will be necessary
precursors to commercial real estate recovery. Overall, Moody's
central global scenario remains "hook-shaped" for 2010
and 2011; we expect overall a sluggish recovery in most of the world's
largest economies, returning to trend growth rate with elevated
fiscal deficits and persistent unemployment levels.
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available
on www.moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes
a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies,
available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
Moody's Investors Service did not receive or take into account a third
party due diligence report on the underlying assets or financial instruments
related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings,
public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's
Analytics information.
Moody's Investors Service considers the quality of information available
on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining
a credit rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to
a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized
and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's
Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable
and accurate based on the information that is available to it.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies
used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
New York
Scott Epperson
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
New York
Deryk Meherik
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Investors Service
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Downgrades One CRE CDO Class of Seawall SPC -- CMBS CDO-2
No Related Data.
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