Approximately $75.3 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, February 06, 2013 -- Moody's has downgraded the rating of one class of Notes issued by Magnolia
Finance II plc Series 2005-6 due to negative credit migration in
the underlying referenced collateral as evidenced by the Moody's
weighted average rating factor (WARF) and recovery rate (WARR).
The rating action is the result of Moody's on-going surveillance
of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation (CRE CDO Synthetic)
transactions.
Moody's rating action is as follows:
Cl. B, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Mar 9,
2011 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Magnolia Finance II Series 2005-6 is a static synthetic CRE CDO
transaction backed by a portfolio of credit default swaps on commercial
mortgage backed securities (CMBS) (100.0% of the pool balance).
As of the January 25, 2013 investor report, the aggregate
issued Note balance of the transaction, including preferred shares,
has decreased to $75.3 from $307.0 million
at issuance. The reduction in the Note balance is due to optional
full redemption of Class A and partial redemption of Class B.
Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the
expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: WARF, weighted
average life (WAL), WARR, and Moody's asset correlation (MAC).
These parameters are typically modeled as actual parameters for static
deals and as covenants for managed deals.
WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool.
We have completed updated assessments for the non-Moody's rated
reference obligations. Moody's modeled a bottom-dollar
WARF of 119 compared to 57 at last review. The current distribution
of Moody's rated referenced collateral and assessments for non-Moody's
rated referenced collateral is as follows: Aaa-Aa3 (85.1%
compared to 87.9% at last review), A1-A3 (7.4%
compared to 8.6% at last review), Baa1-Baa3
(3.7% compared to 2.9% at last review),
Ba1-Ba3 (3.1% compared to 0.0% at last
review) and Caa1-C (0.7% compared to 0.7%
at last review).
Moody's modeled a WAL of 3.2 years compared to 2.7 years
at last review. The current WAL is based on the assumption about
extensions on the underlying reference obligations and associated loans.
Moody's modeled a fixed WARR of 64.5% compared to
65.7% at last review.
Moody's modeled a MAC of 15.3% compared to 11.2%
at last review.
Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.8, one of Moody's
CDO rating models, which was released on March 22, 2012.
Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stress scenarios.
Changes in any one or combination of the key parameters may have rating
implications on certain classes of rated notes. However,
in many instances, a change in key parameter assumptions in certain
stress scenarios may be offset by a change in one or more of the other
key parameters. In general, the rated notes are particularly
sensitive to credit changes within the reference obligations. Holding
all other key parameters static, changing the current ratings and
credit assessments of the reference obligations by one notch downward
or by one notch upward affects the model results by approximately 1 notch
downward and 2 notches upward, respectively.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in
the current macroeconomic environment given the weak pace of recovery
and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate
property values are continuing to move in a modestly positive direction
along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property
type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth
have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward
trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily
increases for a significant period, non-performing properties
are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession
are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with nine straight quarters of
growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand
with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Recovery
in the office sector continues at a measured pace with minimal additions
to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment,
where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the
leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are
outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail
sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past
four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven
by internet sales growth. Across all property sectors, the
availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization
activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy
of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario is for continued below-trend
growth in US GDP over the near term, with consumer spending remaining
soft in the US. Hurricane Sandy may skew near-term economic
data but is unlikely to have any long-term macroeconomic effects.
Primary downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession
in the euro area accompanied by deeper credit contraction; the potential
for a hard landing in major emerging markets, including China,
India and Brazil; an oil supply shock, albeit abated in recent
months; and given recent political gridlock, excessive fiscal
tightening in the US in 2013 leading the US into recession. However,
the Federal Reserve has shown signs of support for activity by continuing
with quantitative easing.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating SF CDOs" published in May 2012. Please see the Credit Policy
page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction
in the past six months.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Jocelyn Delifer
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Michael Gerdes
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Downgrades One Class of Magnolia Finance II Series 2005-6