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Related Issuers
Rating Action:

Moody's Downgrades One and Affirms Eight CRE CDO Classes of Lenox Street CDO 2007-1, Ltd

23 Feb 2011

Approximately $338.4 Million of Structured Securities Affected

New York, February 23, 2011 -- Moody's has downgraded one and affirmed eight classes of Notes issued by Lenox Street CDO 2007-1, Ltd. due to the deterioration in the credit quality of the underlying portfolio as evidenced by an increase in the weighted average rating factor (WARF), increase in collateral interest shortfalls, and increase in Defaulted Securites. The rating action is the result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation (CRE CDO) transactions.

Moody's rating action is as follows:

Cl. A, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Mar 5, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Mar 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Mar 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)

Cl. D, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Mar 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)

Cl. E, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Mar 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)

Cl. F, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Mar 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)

Cl. G, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Mar 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)

Cl. H, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Mar 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)

Cl. J, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Nov 13, 2009 Downgraded to C (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

Lenox Street CDO 2007-1, Ltd. is a revolving hybrid CRE CDO transaction backed by a portfolio commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) collateral (20% of the pool balance) and synthetic reference obligations on CMBS collateral (80% of the pool balance). However, due to an Event of Default (EOD) caused by a failure in the Default Par Value Coverage Ratio test as reported by the Trustee report dated October 26, 2009, the Trustee halted the reinvestment feature of transaction. As of the January 26, 2011 Trustee report, the aggregate Notes balance of the transaction, including the Subordinate Notes, has decreased to $349.4 million from $350.0 million at issuance, due to approximately $0.6 million in pay-downs to the Class G, H and J Notes given a provision that 20% of excess interest of the deal goes to pay the Class G, H and J Notes pro rata in each payment period.

Per the January 26, 2011 Trustee report, the transaction failed the Super Senior Par Value Coverage test, Default Par Value Coverage test as well as the Class A/B, the Class C/D and the Class E/F Overcollateralization Tests. There are 91 assets with par balance of $861.9 million (86.2% of the current pool balance) that are considered Defaulted Securities, compared to only 15 Defaulted Securities with 11.0% of the pool balance at last review. According to Indenture, a Defaulted Security is defined as any security that experiences a payment default, or rating downgrade, or a realized loss.

Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: WARF, weighted average life (WAL), weighted average recovery rate (WARR), and Moody's asset correlation (MAC). These parameters are typically modeled as actual parameters for static deals and as covenants for managed deals.

WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool. We have completed updated credit estimates for the non-Moody's rated collateral and reference obligations. The bottom-dollar WARF is a measure of the default probability within a collateral pool. Moody's modeled a bottom-dollar WARF of 9,416 compared to 5,027 at last review. The distribution of current ratings and credit estimates is as follows: Baa1-Baa3 (0.0% compared to 3.1% at last review), Ba1 --Ba3 (0.0% compared to 12.6% at last review), B1-B3 (2.0% compared to 47.7% at last review), and Caa1-Caa3 (98.0% compared to 36.6% at last review).

WAL acts to adjust the probability of default of the collateral assets in the pool for time. Moody's modeled to a WAL of 5.1 years compared to 6.0 years at last review.

WARR is the par-weighted average of the mean recovery values for the collateral assets in the pool. Due to the majority of the collateral currently within the Caa and below categories, Moody's modeled a WARR of 0.2% compared to 3.9% at last review.

MAC is a single factor that describes the pair-wise asset correlation to the default distribution among the instruments within the collateral pool (i.e. the measure of diversity). Moody's modeled a MAC of 0.0% compared to 50.2% at last review. The low MAC is due to high default probability collateral concentrated within a small number of collateral names.

Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.8, one of Moody's CDO rating models, which was released on January 24, 2011.

The cash flow model, CDOEdge® v3.2.1.0, was used to analyze the cash flow waterfall and its effect on the capital structure of the deal.

Changes in any one or combination of the key parameters may have rating implications on certain classes of rated notes. However, in many instances, a change in key parameter assumptions in certain stress scenarios may be offset by a change in one or more of the other key parameters. Rated notes are particularly sensitive to changes in recovery rate assumptions. Holding all other key parameters static, changing the recovery rate assumption up from 0% to 5% would not result in any rating movement on the rated tranches.

The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics. Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the current sluggish macroeconomic environment and varying performance in the commercial real estate property markets. However, Moody's expects to see increasing or stabilizing property values, higher transaction volumes, a slowing in the pace of loan delinquencies and greater liquidity for commercial real estate in 2011 The hotel and multifamily sectors are continuing to show signs of recovery, while recovery in the office and retail sectors will be tied to recovery of the broader economy. The availability of debt capital continues to improve with terms returning toward market norms. Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario reflects an overall sluggish recovery through 2012, amidst ongoing individual, corporate and governmental deleveraging, persistent unemployment, and government budget considerations.

The principal methodologies used in these ratings were "CMBS: Moody's Approach to Revolving Facilities in CDOs Backed by Commercial Real Estate Securities" published in July 2004, "U.S. CMBS: Moody's Approach to Rating Synthetic CMBS Resecuritizations" published in December 2005 and "Moody's Approach to Rating SF CDOs" published in November 2010.

Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available on www.moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.

Moody's Investors Service did not receive or take into account a third party due diligence report on the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service's information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics' information.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining a credit rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

New York
Zhonghui (Grace) Wu
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

New York
Deryk Meherik
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Investors Service
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Downgrades One and Affirms Eight CRE CDO Classes of Lenox Street CDO 2007-1, Ltd
No Related Data.
© 2022 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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