Approximately $141 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, August 10, 2011 -- Moody's has downgraded one class and affirmed five of Notes issued by
N-Star Real Estate CDO I, Ltd. The affirmations are
a result of the key transaction parameters performing within levels commensurate
with the existing ratings levels. The downgrades are due to deterioration
in the credit quality of the underlying portfolio as evidenced by an increase
in the weighted average rating factor (WARF) and a decrease in the weighted
average recovery rate (WARR). The rating action is the result of
Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial real estate collateralized
debt obligation (CRE CDO) transactions.
Moody's rating action is as follows:
Class A-1 Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2038, Affirmed at
Aaa (sf); previously on Sep 22, 2010 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Class A-2A Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2038, Affirmed
at Aa3 (sf); previously on Apr 2, 2009 Confirmed at Aa3 (sf)
Class A-2B Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2038, Affirmed at
Aa3 (sf); previously on Apr 2, 2009 Confirmed at Aa3 (sf)
Class B-2 Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2038, Downgraded
to A3 (sf); previously on Apr 2, 2009 Confirmed at A2 (sf)
Class C-1A Floating Rate Subordinate Notes due 2038, Affirmed
at Baa3 (sf); previously on Apr 2, 2009 Confirmed at Baa3 (sf)
Class C-1B Fixed Rate Subordinate Notes due 2038, Affirmed
at Baa3 (sf); previously on Apr 2, 2009 Confirmed at Baa3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
N-Star Real Estate CDO I is a static CRE CDO transaction backed
by a portfolio of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) (70.7%),
CRE collateralized debt obligations (CRE CDO) (8.2%) and
real estate investment trust bonds (REIT) (21.0%).
As of the July 29, 2011 Trustee report, the aggregate Note
balance of the transaction has decreased to $231.8 million
from $402.0 million at issuance, with the paydown
directed to the Class A Notes, as a result of regular amortization
of the underlying collateral.
There are five assets with a par balance of $25.5 million
(11.3% of the current pool balance) that are considered
Defaulted Securities as of the July 29, 2011 Trustee report.
Three of these assets (50.4% of the defaulted balance) are
CMBS and two assets are CDO (49.6%). While there
have been no realized losses to date, Moody's does expect some losses
to occur from the higher credit risk CMBS in the portfolio.
Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the
expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: WARF, weighted
average life (WAL), weighted average recovery rate (WARR),
and Moody's asset correlation (MAC). These parameters are typically
modeled as actual parameters for static deals and as covenants for managed
deals.
WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool.
We have completed updated credit estimates for the non-Moody's
rated reference obligations. The bottom-dollar WARF is a
measure of the default probability within a collateral pool. Moody's
modeled a bottom-dollar WARF of 1,853 compared to 838 at
last review. The distribution of current ratings and credit estimates
is as follows: Aaa-Aa3 (12.7% compared to 11.9%
at last review), Baa1-Baa3 (32.6% compared
to 38.3% at last review), Ba1-Ba3 (14.7%
compared to 16.5% at last review), B1-B3 (4.4%
compared to 3.7% at last review), and Caa1-C
(17.4% compared to 6.4% at last review).
WAL acts to adjust the probability of default of the reference obligations
in the pool for time. Moody's modeled to a WAL of 2.3 years
compared to 2.4 years at last review.
WARR is the par-weighted average of the mean recovery values for
the collateral assets in the pool. Moody's modeled a fixed
WARR of 26.7% compared to 25.3% at last review.
MAC is a single factor that describes the pair-wise asset correlation
to the default distribution among the instruments within the collateral
pool (i.e. the measure of diversity). Moody's
modeled a MAC of 6.4% compared to 13.7% at
last review.
Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.8, one of Moody's
CDO rating models, which was released on January 24, 2011.
The cash flow model, CDOEdge® v3.2.1.0,
was used to analyze the cash flow waterfall and its effect on the capital
structure of the deal.
Changes in any one or combination of the key parameters may have rating
implications on certain classes of rated notes. However,
in many instances, a change in key parameter assumptions in certain
stress scenarios may be offset by a change in one or more of the other
key parameters. Rated notes are particularly sensitive to changes
in recovery rate assumptions. Holding all other key parameters
static, changing the recovery rate assumption down from 26.7%
to 16.7% or up to 36.7% would result in average
rating movement on the rated tranches of 0 to 1 notch downward and 0 to
1 notch upward, respectively.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics. Primary sources
of assumption uncertainty are the current sluggish macroeconomic environment
and varying performance in the commercial real estate property markets.
However, Moody's expects to see increasing or stabilizing property
values, higher transaction volumes, a slowing in the pace
of loan delinquencies and greater liquidity for commercial real estate
in 2011 The hotel and multifamily sectors are continuing to show signs
of recovery, while recovery in the office and retail sectors will
be tied to recovery of the broader economy. The availability of
debt capital continues to improve with terms returning toward market norms.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario reflects an overall sluggish
recovery through 2012, amidst ongoing individual, corporate
and governmental deleveraging, persistent unemployment, and
government budget considerations.
The principal methodology used in these ratings is "Moody's Approach to
Rating SF CDOs" published in November 2010.
Other methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating
Commercial Real Estate CDOs" published in July 2011. Please see
the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these
methodologies.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings,
public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's
Analytics information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction
in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing
a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's
considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent
third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor
and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information
received in the rating process.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process
page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time
before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not
be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that
it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information
that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page
on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
New York
Lacey Morgan
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
New York
Deryk Meherik
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Downgrades One and Affirms Five Classes of N-Star Real Estate CDO I, Ltd.