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Announcement:

Moody's: ECB's bond-buying to have limited impact on credit, growth and inflation

23 Jan 2015

London, 23 January 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service said in a report published today that it expects the European Central Bank's (ECB) quantitative easing (QE) programme to have only a limited effect on growth, credit and inflation across the euro area.

However, the ECB's expanded bond-buying programme will generally be positive for issuers of debt in the euro area, depending on QE's success in increasing growth and inflation.

Moody's report, entitled "Credit Implications of ECB's QE are Limited", is available through the link at the end of this release.

"The credit effects of QE will vary by sector, but in general, we think that they will be limited," said Marie Diron, Senior Vice President at Moody's. "We expect QE to have a limited impact on growth and inflation."

"A further weakening of the euro would help euro area exporters and is likely to be the most effective of the diverse channels through which the QE programme can work," Ms Diron added. "However, relatively muted global growth is likely to limit the short-term benefits of greater price competitiveness."

Moody's expects several factors to limit the impact of QE: Firstly, financial markets widely expected the ECB action and some of the effects of QE have already taken place, especially in terms of lower interest rates.

Secondly, euro area banks' ability to lend more is restricted by tighter regulatory capital requirements.

Thirdly, cheaper oil prices will partly offset QE's inflationary impact. Moody's forecasts that inflation will be negative in 2015, averaging around -0.5%.

For banks, the immediate effects of QE will be mixed, as positive economic effects are offset by the negative impact of interest rates being lower for longer, which will further squeeze margins.

Moody's expects very limited positive effects on euro area growth from increased bank lending prompted by QE. Lower interest rates are also negative for insurance companies.

Corporates could benefit from a general increase in risk appetite triggered by QE, which would improve financing conditions. As a result, corporate bond issuance may rise compared to the H2 2014 levels, although probably not back to the high levels observed in the first half of last year.

"By taking these new steps, the ECB is again demonstrating its commitment to preventing low inflation or outright deflation becoming entrenched," Ms Diron is said. "This could have a positive effect on confidence and risk appetite, or at least limit any worsening in confidence in the face of future negative shocks," he added.

For more information, Moody's research subscribers can access this report at

http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1002580

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Marie Diron
Vice President
Credit Policy
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Colin Ellis
MD-CCO EMEA
Credit Policy
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: ECB's bond-buying to have limited impact on credit, growth and inflation
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