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17 Mar 2011
EMEA Auto Loan ABS Indices - January 2011
Frankfurt am Main, March 17, 2011 -- The performance of the auto-loan asset-backed securities
(ABS) market in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) remained
stable over the past quarter, according to the latest indices published
by Moody's Investors Service.
In January 2011, 60+ day delinquencies remained stable at 1.07%
compared with 1.06% in November 2010 and 1.15%
in October 2010. Similarly, cumulative defaults and weighted
average cumulative losses continued their stable trends, standing
at 1.82% and around 0.9%, respectively,
in January 2011. Weighted average cumulative losses have remained
at this approximate level for the past three months.
The major EMEA auto-loan ABS markets, such as Germany,
continued to exhibit stable performance. However, auto ABS
delinquencies in Portugal (6.74%) and Spain (4.12%)
remained higher than the overall index (1.07%) in January
On 23 December 2010, Moody's placed on review for possible
downgrade three tranches of LTR Finance No. 6 plc and LTR Finance
No. 8 Limited. This rating action reflects weaknesses in
the operational risk mitigating structural features. Moody's already
downgraded the senior notes of the LTR transactions in May 2010 to reflect
operational risk concerns. This latter review reflects the weakening
of the banking sector in Portugal for both rated and unrated financial
On 3 March 2011, Moody's placed on review for possible downgrade
ratings in three transactions issued by Santander Consumer Bank AG following
the publication of new operational risk criteria by the rating agency.
For further information, please see the press releases published
Economic conditions are varied across the main countries in the EMEA auto
loans ABS index. Moody's expects relatively strong GDP growth
of 2.3% in Germany 2011 and 1.5% in France
in 2011. The rating agency expects further decreases in the unemployment
rate in both Germany and France, which will help borrowers make
their payment obligations.
Economic conditions in Italy, Spain and Portugal remain weak however.
Moody's expects GDP growth of only 1.0% in Italy and
0.6% in Spain in 2011. The rating agency expects
Portugal to remain in recession in 2011. Against this background
of weak economic growth, unemployment rates will fail to decrease
materially in Spain and Italy and they will continue to increase in Portugal.
Moody's expects defaults to increase in Italy, Spain and Portugal
because many borrowers will continue to lose their jobs. Furthermore,
many borrowers who have been unemployed for some time will see their unemployment
benefits begin to expire, which will contribute to payment difficulties
and increased delinquencies.
Moody's outlook for German auto loans ABS remain stable.
However, the rating agency's outlook for Portuguese auto ABS
As of January 2011, the total outstanding pool balance was EUR17.5
million, which represents a year-on-year decline of
nearly 20%. There was one new transaction in February 2011,
Driver Eight GmbH issued by Volkswagen Bank GmbH in Germany.
Moody's indices are usually published mid-month and can be found
on www.moodys.com in the Structured Finance sub-directory
under the Research & Ratings tab. In the left-hand side
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Data. Finally, on the Research tab in the middle of your
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credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered
users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
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Moody's: EMEA Auto ABS Performance Remained Stable in January 2011
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