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Moody's: EMEA Auto Loan ABS Maintained Stable Trends In March

12 May 2010

EMEA Auto Loan ABS Indices -- March 2010

Frankfurt, May 12, 2010 -- The performance of the auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) market in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) continued its stable trend during March 2010, according to the latest indices published by Moody's Investors Service. Moody's 60+ days delinquency trend was stable at 1.3% in March, a level that the index has maintained since January 2010. Meanwhile, the weighted-average cumulative losses trend increased marginally to 0.8% in March, having remained at 0.7% since October 2009. Moody's average constant prepayment rate (CPR) trend increased slightly to 10.6% in March from 9.7% in February 2010.

The major EMEA auto loan ABS markets such as Germany have remained relatively stable and performance has not been affected to any great degree by the weak economy. The sound conditions of the German auto loan ABS sector are also reflected by market demand for new issues and the potential primary issuance in the pipeline. However, in Spain and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, delinquency rates have increased rapidly since the end of 2009, driven by the deteriorating macro-economic environment and rising unemployment in these markets. At present, two transactions originated in Spain have drawn on their reserve funds. In April 2010, Moody's downgraded the notes in BBVA Autos 2, FTA, a Spanish auto loan ABS transaction. The downgrade was prompted by the deteriorating collateral performance and the worse than expected weakening of macro-economic conditions in Spain during the past year.

On 7 May 2010, Moody's downgraded to Aa3 the ratings of the Class B notes issued by LTR Finance No 5 plc, as well as the most senior classes of notes in LTR Finance No 6 plc and LTR Warehouse Limited. In addition, Moody's confirmed the Aaa ratings of the Class A notes in LTR Finance No 5 plc and all the mezzanine notes that were on review for possible downgrade in each of these three Portuguese auto loan ABS transactions. The downgrades reflected Moody's assessment that the credit quality of the servicers and the structural features of the transactions make them vulnerable to possible payment disruptions and losses that could result from the servicers' failure to perform their obligations in a timely manner in a distressed scenario. The confirmation of the ratings of the Class A notes issued by LTR Finance No 5 plc resulted from their high credit enhancement and the expectation that their residual outstanding amount will be repaid by the next quarterly payment date. Moody's notes that the limited magnitude of the downgrades reflects the likelihood that some of the transaction agents would mitigate payment disruptions in a distressed scenario. For more information, please see the press release "Moody's downgrades 3 Portuguese Auto ABS deals due to operational risk" published on www.moodys.com.

Although Moody's has observed some stability in the EMEA auto loan ABS indices in recent months, the weak recovery in the Eurozone economy could challenge this stability. Moody's Economy.com expects Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.9% in 2010 (which has been downwardly revised). Moody's Economy.com also forecasts a continued rise in the Eurozone unemployment rate to 10.3% in 2010. The prospect of fiscal tightening will place pressure on consumer confidence and domestic demand will remain subdued. Consumer price pressures are increasing and the flash estimate of inflation increased to 1.5% in April 2010 from negative levels as recently as October 2009. Personal insolvencies in Germany rose by 4.6% in January 2010 compared to January 2009, which illustrates that the household sector has yet to recover fully from the recession.

Moody's outlook for German, Portuguese and South African auto loan ABS remains negative (see "EMEA ABS & RMBS: 2009 Review & 2010 Outlook", January 2010).

As of March 2010, the total outstanding pool balance in the EMEA auto loan ABS market was EUR21.8 billion, which constitutes a decline of 16% over the past year. Approximately 70% of the outstanding transaction volume in this market is collateralised by auto loans originated by captive originators. Germany is the most important market for auto loan ABS in EMEA. It represents more than 60% of the outstanding volume, followed by France and Italy which each account for approximately 12%, followed by less representative markets such as Spain, CIS, Portugal, South Africa and the UK.

Moody's monthly indices are published mid-month and can be found on www.moodys.com in the Structured Finance sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab, under the Structured Indices sub-category of Industry/Sector Research.

http://v3.moodys.com/page/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF204446

In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.

Paris
Carole Gintz
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's France S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Frankfurt
Yuezhen Wang
Senior Associate
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: EMEA Auto Loan ABS Maintained Stable Trends In March
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