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Moody's: EMEA CMBS Performance Deteriorates In Q1 2010 Despite Improvements In Some Property Markets

25 May 2010

Loan and transaction restructurings increase

London, 25 May 2010 -- Commercial real estate (CRE) lenders in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) remain wary and with many sponsors having insufficient equity to support their loans, CMBS loan and transaction restructurings were a main theme during Q1 2010, says Moody's Investors Service in its latest Surveillance Report for the sector.

"Most borrowers of CMBS loans that matured during Q1 2010 could not repay or refinance their loan, and the loans either had their maturity date extended, or defaulted and underwent a subsequent restructuring rather than loan enforcement," says Viola Karoly, a Moody's Analyst and co-author of the report. "Loan restructurings in order to prevent a default are also increasing, with the most notable restructuring during Q1 2010 involving the first ever legal final maturity date extension of EMEA CMBS notes in order to facilitate the extension of the underlying single loan."

In the report, Moody's notes that select European CRE property markets continued to improve in Q1 2010, although much of this improvement remains limited to the prime segment (a relatively small portion of EMEA CMBS collateral). Moody's continues to witness further market value declines, especially for properties securing distressed loans. In the current environment, loans that default are typically secured by properties with weaker characteristics. "These characteristics further drive down their market value, even if in the overall property market property values are increasing," explains Ms Karoly. "Several downgrades and reviews for possible downgrades during Q1 2010 resulted from market value declines that were greater than we had expected."

"In terms of our outlook for this sector over the coming quarters, we do not expect CRE loan performance to improve, and we still expect that many CMBS loans will default during their term, or at maturity," says Manuel Rollmann, a Moody's Associate Analyst and co-author of the report.

Moody's says that it remains sceptical of the high-value recovery in some markets over the past six to nine months. "We expect more stable-to-moderate increasing property values going forward, with a large differentiation in values between prime and secondary properties," says Thomas Babin, a Moody's Associate Analyst and co-author of the report. "One of our key concerns is that foreclosures stemming from an increasing amount of loans defaulting at maturity will result in more properties being sold at significant discounts, negatively impacting market prices."

As Moody's incorporated its expectation of further performance deterioration of CRE loans into its rating analysis last year, downgrade rating actions subsided during Q1 2010. During the quarter, Moody's downgraded 16 classes of notes in seven transactions, mainly due to loan and transaction-specific factors. Four classes of notes in two small multi-borrower transactions and two tranches in a large multi-borrower transaction were upgraded during Q1 2010 due to among other things, an increase in credit enhancement since the transactions closed. As of end-Q1 2010, a total of 39 classes of notes remained on review: 34 classes of notes in 14 transactions for possible downgrade and five tranches in one transaction for possible upgrade due to the replacement of the former interest rate swap provider, Lehman Brothers.

The report, entitled "EMEA CMBS Q1 2010: Surveillance Review", is a quarterly publication which reports the findings of Moody's ongoing monitoring of rated CMBS and multi-family transactions in EMEA. Moody's EMEA CMBS monitoring team currently monitors 196 transactions.

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information please contact New York Press Information +1-212-553-0376; EMEA Press Information in London +44-20-7772-5456; Juan Pablo Soriano in Madrid +34-91-310-1454; Alex Cataldo in Milan +39-02-914-81-100; Eric de Bodard in Paris +33-1-5330-1020; Detlef Scholz in Frankfurt +49-69-707-30-700; Mardig Haladjian in Limassol +357-25-586-586; Alex Sazhin in Moscow +7-495-228-60-60; Petr Vins in Prague +4202 2422 2929; Tokyo Press Information +813-5408-4110; Hilary Parkes in Toronto +1-416-214-1635; Hong Kong Press Information +852-2916-1150; Hector Lim in Sydney +612 9270 8102; Luiz Tess in São Paulo +5511-3043-7300; Alberto Jones Tamayo in Mexico City +5255-1253-5700; Daniel Rúas in Buenos Aires +54 11-4816-2332 ext. 105; Leon Claassen in Johannesburg +27-11-217-5470; Jehad el-Nakla in Dubai +971 4 401 9536; or visit our web site at www.moodys.com

London
Christian Aufsatz
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Johannesburg
Viola Karoly
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service South Africa (Pty) Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: EMEA CMBS Performance Deteriorates In Q1 2010 Despite Improvements In Some Property Markets
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