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Moody's: EMEA Consumer Loan ABS Performance Deteriorates Further In January

Global Credit Research - 15 Mar 2011

EMEA Consumer Loan ABS Indices -- January

Frankfurt am Main, March 15, 2011 -- The performance of the consumer loan asset-backed securities (ABS) market in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) continued to deteriorate in January 2011, according to the latest indices published by Moody's Investors Service. The sustained weak performance was mainly reflected in Moody's gross default trend: defaults increased in January 2011 to 3.7% from 3.5% in October 2010, reaching a cumulative increase of 41% for the past 12 months.

Moody's constant prepayment rate (CPR) trend stabilised during Q4 2010 and its level in January 2011 is 12.7%.

Moody's notes that the trend for 90-180 delinquencies (over the original balance) in Portugal, Italy and Spain is mostly decreasing. Delinquencies are still increasing in Greece.

One sign of weak performance is that the reserve funds in 14 EMEA consumer loan ABS transactions are currently below target levels. Moreover, says Moody's, the reserve funds of seven transactions are fully depleted and five are reporting unpaid PDL (Principal Deficiency Ledger).

During this month Moody's reviewed the performance of all 15 consumer loan transactions backed by pools of assets in Italy, Germany, Netherlands, France and United Kingdom and does not expect rating changes related to their pool performance in 2011.

Economic conditions continue to remain weak across the main countries in the EMEA consumer loan ABS index. Moody's expects GDP growth of only 1.0% in Italy and 0.6% in Spain in 2011. The rating agency expects Portugal and Greece to remain in recession in 2011. Against this background of weak economic growth, unemployment rates will fail to decrease materially in Spain and Italy and they will continue to increase in Portugal and Greece. Moody's expects defaults to increase because many borrowers will continue to lose their jobs. Furthermore, many borrowers who have been unemployed for some time will see their unemployment benefits begin to expire, which will contribute to payment difficulties and increased delinquencies.

Moody's outlook for consumer loan ABS in EMEA is negative (see the report "EMEA ABS & RMBS: 2010 Review & 2011 Outlook, December 2010).

As of January 2011, the total outstanding pool balance in the EMEA consumer loan ABS market increased to EUR35.2 billion from EUR34.5 billion in October 2010. Transactions in this market are collateralised by unsecured consumer loans originated by specialised lenders and banks. The securitisations provide both funding and capital relief. The most important markets for consumer loan ABS in EMEA are Italy and Spain, representing 26% and 21% of the total market, respectively.

The EMEA Consumer Loan Indices now includes a section showing all related research.

Moody's indices are usually published mid-month and can be found on www.moodys.com in the Structured Finance sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. In the left-hand side bar, under the Research Type category heading, select Statistical Data. Finally, on the Research tab in the middle of your screen, select the third option, Indices & Data.

http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF240032

In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of its website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck

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Structured Finance Group
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Moody's: EMEA Consumer Loan ABS Performance Deteriorates Further In January
No Related Data.
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