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Announcement:

Moody's: Economic stabilisation, return to GDP growth support CIS companies' stable outlook for 2017

 The document has been translated in other languages

01 Dec 2016

London, 01 December 2016 -- Stabilising macroeconomic and financial market conditions and the return to positive GDP growth in the region, especially Russia (Ba1 negative), underpin the stable outlook for non-financial corporates in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) for 2017, says Moody's Investors Service in a special report published today.

Moody's report, titled "Non-Financial Corporates -- CIS: 2017 Outlook -- Stable on Signs of Macro Recovery and Response to Low Commodity Prices", is available on www.moodys.com. This report is part of a series of 2017 Credit Outlooks that provide insight into next year's credit conditions across all sectors. See more at www.moodys.com/2017outlooks

"The stabilising macroeconomic environment in the main CIS markets, especially Russia and Kazakhstan, is the primary driver behind our stable outlook for CIS non-financial corporates into 2017," says Victoria Maisuradze, a Moody's Associate Managing Director and author of the report.

Other key considerations driving the region's stable outlook include the oil price recovery to above $40 per barrel of Brent, Russia's reduced risk of further material sanctions, regional companies' improved access to liquidity from international markets, and the gradual normalisation of inflation and interest rates.

Moody's expects that CIS countries will return to growth in 2017, with Russia's GDP growing by 1% in 2017 in the absence of further geopolitical tensions, sanctions and oil shocks. Kazakhstan's (Baa3 negative) GDP is expected to grow by 1.1%, although this is dependent on the oil sector. While oil and other commodity prices have stabilised from lows in January 2016, upside potential is limited in 2017.

On a country-by-country basis, only half of rated Russian corporates have stable or positive outlooks as many negative outlooks mirror the negative outlook on the sovereign's rating. While the country will return to GDP growth from 2017, the process is slow and fragile and the economy suffers from a lack of diversification and chronic underinvestment.

85% of Kazakhstan's rated corporates have a negative outlook as the rated universe is dominated by government-related issuers, whose outlooks in some cases are also constrained by the sovereign's negative outlook. Three of the four rated corporates in Ukraine (Caa3 stable) have a negative outlook on the back of company-specific factors, but also take into account the high political risks, both domestic and geopolitical, and continuing weak GDP growth after a major contraction in 2014-15.

Subscribers can access this report via this link: https://www.moodys.com/research/--PBC_1051822

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Artem Frolov
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Limited, Russian Branch
7th floor, Four Winds Plaza
21 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya St.
Moscow 125047
Russia

Victoria Maisuradze
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
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