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14 Jan 2011
EMEA ABS SME Indices - November 2010
Frankfurt am Main, January 14, 2011 -- The performance of the European ABS SME market remained weak in most countries
during November 2010 with the exception of Germany and the Netherlands,
according to the latest indices published by Moody's Investors Service.
According to cumulative default levels on original balance after 36 months,
ABS SME performance has been particularly weak in Greece (5.2%),
Portugal (4.5%) and in the UK (2.6%).
Although the cumulative default level for Spain appears to be relatively
low (1.0%) due to the late default definition (12 or 18
months delinquencies), Moody's expects it to increase when
the performance of more recent vintages weigh more heavily in the index.
Additionally, cumulative default levels for German and Dutch SMEs
continued to follow a stable trend, stabilising around 1%
and 0.7%, respectively. The rating agency believes
that the high correlation between SME performance and the general economic
environment means that ABS SME performance should improve as countries
come out of recession.
Moody's central macroeconomic scenario is for economic growth in
Europe as a whole to remain sluggish in 2011. However, the
pace of economic recovery will continue to differ among individual countries.
Indeed, economic improvement in Germany, the Netherlands and
UK has been stronger than in Spain, Portugal and Greece.
Moody's expects economic growth to remain robust in Germany and
the Netherlands, thereby supporting stability in SME performance.
The rating agency expects unemployment levels to continue to fall,
reaching 7.2% in Germany in Q1 2012 (from 7.7%
in Q3 2010) and 4.9% in the Netherlands in Q1 2012 (from
5.6% in Q3 2010). The improving labour market will
support demand for the output of SMEs. Moody's outlook for
German SME remains stable (see the report "EMEA ABS & RMBS:
2011 Outlook & 2010 Review", published on 20 December
Moody's expects that Greece will remain in recession in 2011 and
economic growth in Portugal will be subdued. In both of these countries,
a fiscal contraction will place negative pressure on economic growth and
increases in taxes will raise the financial burden on SMEs. The
outlook for Greek SME remains unchanged negative.
In Spain, the largest market within the EMEA SME index, the
economic recovery has been very sluggish as a result of the large hangover
in the real estate sector. Unemployment has continuously increased
in the past three years, reaching 20.3% in Q3 2010,
compared with 8.0% in Q2 2007. Moody's believes
that with a protracted adjustment in the real estate sector, unemployment
is likely to remain above 19% in 2011 and GDP growth will remain
below 1% in 2011. The outlook for Spanish SME ABS is negative.
On 17 December, Moody's placed on review for possible downgrade
the Aa1 (sf) ratings of the senior notes of five Spanish SME transactions
(AyT FTPYME II, FTA; BBVA 6 FTPYME, FTA; FTPYME
TDA CAM 4, FTA; GC FTPYME SABADELL 6, FTA; and IM
Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME I, FTA). This review results from
the rating agency's placement of the Aa1 rating of Spain on review
for possible downgrade on 15 December 2010. Spain guarantees payments
on the affected senior ABS SME notes. For more details, please
refer to the press release "Moody's reviews ratings on guaranteed
senior notes in 5 Spanish SME ABS" published on Moody's com.
On 21 December, Moody's placed on review for possible downgrade
the senior rating of Synergatis Plc. Moody's has also placed on
review the ratings of three mezzanine and junior classes of another Greek
SME ABS Anaptyxi 2006-1 Plc. These rating actions resulted
from Moody's decision on December 16 to review for possible downgrade
the Ba1 ratings of Greece's government bonds. The decision to place
the mezzanine and junior notes of Anaptyxi 2006-1 also reflect
Moody's concerns about the performance of the securitised pool of revolving
SME loans under stressful refinancing conditions taking into account the
available level of credit enhancement. For more details,
pls refer to press release "Moody's places the ratings of 13 Greek
structured finance transactions on review for possible downgrade".
On 23 December, Moody's placed on review for possible downgrade
the A1 (sf) rated notes in Chaves SME CLO No. 1. The rating
action reflects the rating agency's expectation of further asset
performance deterioration, because of the uncertainties around Portugal's
longer-term economic vitality. On 21 December 2010,
Moody's placed on review for possible downgrade Portugal's A1 rating,
citing Portugal's sluggish growth, downward pressure on GDP growth,
heightened funding costs and the financial impact of support to the banking
sector. For more details, please refer to the press release
"Moody's reviews ratings of 25 Portuguese ABS and RMBS for possible
As of November 2010, the total outstanding pool balance in the European
SME ABS market stood at EUR124.1 billion, which constitutes
a decline of 10% over the past year. The most important
markets for SME ABS in EMEA are Spain, the Netherlands and Germany,
representing respectively 35%, 16% and 16%
of the sector. Six Spanish transactions were issued in Q4 2010
(TDA EMPRESAS 2, FTA; PYMECAT 3 FTPYME, FTA; FONCAIXA
EMPRESAS 2, FTA; TDA FTPYME PASTOR 9, FTA; FTPYME
TDA CAM 9, FTA and MADRID FTPYME I, FTA).
Moody's indices are published mid-month and can be found on www.moodys.com
in the Structured Finance sub-directory under the Research &
Ratings tab, under the Structured Indices sub-category of
In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance
credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered
users of its website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call
one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376,
London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110,
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Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo
0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506.
You can also email us at firstname.lastname@example.org or visit our
web site at www.moodys.com.
Frankfurt am Main
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's France SAS
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
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Moody's Deutschland GmbH
Moody's: European ABS SME Performance Remained Muted in November 2010
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