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Announcement:

Moody's: German regulated energy networks may face political pressure on rising energy costs for customers

12 Aug 2013

London, 12 August 2013 -- Whilst German regulated energy networks have so far benefited from changes to the industry's incentive-based regulatory regime, the focus of the national energy policy on renewable energy generation may exert negative pressure on electricity transmission system operators (TSOs), says Moody's Investors Service in a report on the sector published today. Whilst the rating agency does not expect any immediate rating pressures, any future regulatory or political decisions, which may defer cost recovery for TSOs, could impact their credit quality negatively.

The new report, entitled "German Regulated Energy Networks: Regulatory Changes Have Proved Beneficial to Date but Affordability Issues May Exert Negative Pressure on Electricity TSOs", is now available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release.

"Changes to the German incentive-based regulatory regime for energy networks since its introduction in January 2009 have resulted in greater certainty of earning a timely return on new expansion investments for regulated network operators in Germany, a credit positive," says Stefanie Voelz, an Assistant Vice President - Analyst in Moody's Infrastructure & Project Finance Group and author of the report. "In particular, the two-year time lag before capital expenditure investments would earn a return has been removed, allowing companies to re-coup the funding costs of investments from the start."

In addition, for the transmission system operators (TSOs) facing large investment requirements into offshore connections, changes to the risk-share mechanism have created more planning security and reduced the exposure to potential delay damages claims from owners of offshore wind generation capacity.

However, in the medium to long term, Moody's sees particular challenges in relation to the continued focus of the national energy policy on renewable energy generation. The increasing costs related to various aspects of the renewable regime include (1) subsidies for the developers and associated guaranteed feed-in tariffs; (2) liquidity buffers needed to support the marketing of the renewable energy by the transmission network operators; and (3) the pass-through of potential costs in relation to delays in offshore wind farm connections.

These increasing costs, which are initially borne by the electricity TSOs, are ultimately passed on to customer bills and weigh heavily on German households. This effect can only be expected to increase given the planned additional developments in renewable energy generation.

"Affordability for end-consumers may receive growing political attention with the upcoming national elections, and the risk of government intervention to the detriment of the German electricity TSOs cannot be completely excluded," continues Ms. Voelz. "Whilst we do not think that there is a risk that substantial costs may not be recovered at all, we believe that there is a clear possibility that returns may be deferred to ease any increase in customer bills in the short to medium term."

For German electricity TSOs, a strong regulatory regime that (1) remains independent of political pressure; and (2) has clear principles for timely cost recovery and a track record of consistent application of these principles will be a key mitigant of such risks. A delay in recovering the potential prefunding of renewable subsidies would primarily have a negative impact on those TSOs that carry a large share of the national subsidy through the level of consumption in their area. Amprion GmbH (A3 stable) is one example, although Moody's notes that the company has a prudent financial policy and ample liquidity arrangements in place to cover the current risks. TenneT TSO GmbH, a subsidiary of TenneT Holdings B.V. (A3 stable), and to a lesser extent 50Hertz Transmission GmbH, a subsidiary of Eurogrid GmbH (Baa1 stable), will be investing in offshore wind connections and may require additional liquidity if they find themselves subject to future delay damage claims from offshore wind farms that cannot immediately be recovered through customer charges.

Overall, although recognising recent improvements, Moody's believes that the German system of economic regulation still has some relative weaknesses in comparison with other, more transparent and established regimes across Europe. For example, regulatory decisions and determinations with regard to the calculation of tariffs and performance of companies are not publicly disclosed. Also, being a relatively new form of regulation that is still undergoing material changes, the outcome of future developments is less predictable.

Subscribers can access this report via this link: https://www.moodys.com/research/German-Regulated-Energy-Networks-Regulatory-Changes-Have-Proved-Beneficial-to--PBC_156573.

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com

Stefanie Voelz
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Infrastructure Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Andrew Blease
Associate Managing Director
Infrastructure Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
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JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: German regulated energy networks may face political pressure on rising energy costs for customers
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