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Announcement:

Moody's Global Macro Report: Strong growth led by G20 economies will propel global expansion, US GDP revised downward

Global Credit Research - 30 Aug 2017

New York, August 30, 2017 -- Global economic expansion should continue into the rest of 2017 and 2018, led by strong growth in advanced economies, Moody's Investors Service says in its global macroeconomic outlook report. This outlook includes a downward revision to Moody's growth forecast for the United States, on account of weaker performance and modified fiscal assumptions.

G20 economies will collectively grow at an annual rate of slightly more than 3% in 2017 and 2018, higher than last year's 2.6%. With considerable slack remaining in some euro area economies and some emerging market countries, the current pace of growth around 2% in advanced economies and more than 5% in emerging markets is not only sustainable in the near term, there is potential for upside, said Elena Duggar, an Associate Managing Director at Moody's.

"The global economy continues to maintain solid momentum," Duggar said.

Surprisingly strong data have prompted upward revisions to 2017 growth forecasts for China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico and Turkey. With clear signs that the expansion is likely to be sustained through 2018 in these countries, Moody's has also raised real GDP growth forecasts for next year. Moody's lowered growth projections for India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United States.

Moody's expects US growth of 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, down from 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively. The revisions in 2017 are a result of weaker performance in the first half of the year. The lower growth forecast for 2018 reflects expectations of a more modest fiscal stimulus than previously assumed.

"We don't expect a major infrastructure bill to pass in 2017 or 2018," said Madhavi Bokil, a vice president at Moody's and author of the report. "Even if a bill were to pass, infrastructure expenditure that is funded through tax credits will have a minimal immediate impact on growth," Bokil said.

Monetary policy in the US should continue to tighten this year and next. Moody's also expects monetary policy in the euro area to become less supportive in 2018, provided that the current growth momentum remains intact. The Bank of Japan's policy stance will likely become less accommodative once the 2% inflation target is reached, which the central bank expects in 2019.

The report also includes an overview of key systemic risks. Geopolitical event risks include potential conflict in the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea and the Middle East. Other risks include a protectionist turn by the US, and any financial market volatility stemming from sudden changes in market expectation regarding monetary policy tightening.

Moody's research subscribers can access this report, "Global Macroeconomic Outlook (August 2017 Update): Above-potential growth in advanced economies propels economic expansion," at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1085762.

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NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Madhavi Bokil
VP - Senior Analyst
Credit Strategy & Standards
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Anne Van Praagh
MD-Gbl Strategy & Research
Credit Strategy & Standards
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
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