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Announcement:

Moody's: Global shipping industry outlook is stable with moderate EBITDA growth

 The document has been translated in other languages

08 Oct 2014

Tokyo, October 08, 2014 -- In a report published on 8 October, Moody's Japan K.K. said its outlook for the global shipping industry is stable, with moderate EBITDA growth expected amid continued vessel oversupply. The outlook was previously changed to stable from negative in April 2014.

"We expect mid- to high-single-digit percentage aggregate year-over-year EBITDA growth for Moody's rated shipping companies over the coming 12-18 months," says Mariko Semetko, a Moody's Assistant Vice President - Analyst. "But this growth reflects reduced costs rather than improved fundamentals."

The just-published industry outlook "Global Shipping Industry: EBITDA Growth Will Be Moderate as Shipping Capacity Continues to Outstrip Demand," reflects Moody's expectations for the fundamental business conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months.

The supply of shipping vessels will remain higher than demand for most shipping services, says Moody's. Slow global economic growth and continued deliveries of new vessels has led to a capacity glut, which limits companies' ability to raise rates they charge for shipping freight, constraining revenue and EBITDA growth.

Moody's expects that this supply-demand imbalance and somewhat stable fuel costs will continue, and that EBITDA growth will come through cost-cutting measures. These include optimizing cargo routes through technological means, refueling at ports with relatively cheap prices, operating vessels at reduced power to reduce fuel costs, and increasingly using newer, more efficient vessels.

"EBITDA growth will come as shipping companies continue to increase operating efficiencies and reduce costs, adds Semetko, "Especially as we expect fuel prices to remain stable."

Moody's expects bunker fuel costs to remain around $600 per metric tonne during the outlook period. Bunker fuel prices have averaged around $600 per metric tonne over the past year and dipped to about $570 per metric tonne in late September, down from the peak of nearly $740 per metric tonne in 2012.

But freight rates will vary by sector, with container, dry bulk and crude oil tanker segments seeing continued low freight rates, while product tanker rates could improve modestly as supply is tighter over the next 12 to 18 months, says Moody's. Moody's expects that product tanker deliveries will increase beyond its outlook period, which will make sustained rate increases difficult.

Moody's would change the outlook back to negative if there are signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that aggregate EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year. We would consider a positive outlook if the oversupply of vessels declines materially and aggregate year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%.

Moody's research subscribers may access this report at

http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_175870

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Mariko Semetko
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Japan K.K.
Atago Green Hills Mori Tower 20fl
2-5-1 Atago, Minato-ku
Tokyo 105-6220
Japan
JOURNALISTS: 813-5408-4110
SUBSCRIBERS: 813-5408-4100

Ian Lewis
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 813-5408-4110
SUBSCRIBERS: 813-5408-4100

Releasing Office:
Moody's Japan K.K.
Atago Green Hills Mori Tower 20fl
2-5-1 Atago, Minato-ku
Tokyo 105-6220
Japan
JOURNALISTS: 813-5408-4110
SUBSCRIBERS: 813-5408-4100

Moody's: Global shipping industry outlook is stable with moderate EBITDA growth
No Related Data.
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