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Global Credit Research - 11 Sep 2013
New York, September 11, 2013 -- Moody's trailing 12-month global speculative-grade
default rate came in at 2.9% in August, down slightly
from July's revised rate of 3.0%, Moody's
Investors Service says in its monthly default report. The latest
global reading is very close to the rating agency's year-ago
forecast of 3.0%.
Moody's "August Default Report" is now available,
as are Moody's other default research reports, in the Ratings
Analytics section of Moodys.com.
"Corporate defaults continue to track our expectations very closely,"
notes Albert Metz, Managing Director of Moody's Credit Policy
Research. "Absent an abrupt change in monetary policy,
we expect the current low levels of corporate defaults to continue for
the near term."
Only two Moody's-rated corporate debt issuers defaulted last
month. In the year to date there have been 47 defaults: 27
from North America, 13 from Europe and the remainder from Latin
America. In the comparable period last year, there were 46
In the US, the speculative-grade default rate finished August
at 2.8%, down from July's revised rate of 2.9%.
Last year, the US default rate finished August at 3.6%.
In Europe, the rate held steady at 3.4% from July
to August, and a year ago it was also 3.4%.
Moody's default rate forecasting model now predicts that the global
speculative-grade default rate will finish 2013 at 3.1%,
before falling to 2.7% in August 2014.
Across industries over the coming year, Moody's continues
to expect default rates to be highest in the Media: Advertising,
Printing & Publishing sector in the US, and the Hotel,
Gaming & Leisure sector in Europe.
Measured on a dollar-volume basis, the global speculative-grade
bond default rate came in at 1.7% in August, down
from 1.9% in July. At this time last year,
the rate was 2.2%.
In the US, the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond
default rate fell to 1.3% in August from 1.5%
in July. The comparable rate was 1.9% in August 2012.
And in Europe the dollar-weighted rate finished August at 3.1%,
down from 3.2% in July. At this time last year,
the European rate was 3.3%.
Moody's global distressed index edged lower in August, to
8.5% from 8.8% in July. A year ago,
the index stood at 17.5%.
In the leveraged-loan market, just one Moody's-rated
issuer defaulted in August. Moody's trailing 12-month
US leveraged loan default rate finished August at 2.5%,
down from 2.6% in July. A year ago, the loan
default rate stood at 2.6%.
Moody's research subscribers can access this report at https://www.moodys.com/research/Monthly-Default-Report-August-2013--PBC_158196.
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MD - Credit Policy Research
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Moody's: Global spec-grade corporate default rate declines in August
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
No Related Data.
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