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Announcement:

Moody's: Improving foreign reserves supports Indonesia Ba1 rating, stable outlook

Global Credit Research - 10 Feb 2011

Singapore, February 10, 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service has published its 2011 sovereign report on Indonesia, which provides a methodological assessment of the country's Ba1 foreign- and local-currency issuer rating and stable outlook.

Rationale for the Rating:

1. Indonesia's prospects for steady economic growth and price stability are reasonably sound, although in the near term supply-side price pressures and capital inflow challenges will remain elevated. Meanwhile, policy and administrative reforms are improving investment prospects and attracting greater foreign direct investment.

2. Appropriate policy management has ably steered the economy through the global economic crisis, but increasingly competitive local politics and shortcomings in governance weigh on institutional reforms.

3. Improved foreign currency reserve adequacy provides a stronger buffer against external shocks. In addition, the ongoing reduction in the sovereign debt burden is driving improvements in the government's debt affordability. However, in comparison to investment-grade rated peers, Indonesia remains more dependent on non-resident -- and less stable -- sources of financing.

4. The limited size of domestic institutional investors' assets and the lack of depth in the domestic capital markets elevates to some degree sovereign credit vulnerability to large shifts in portfolio capital flows, but the creation of a bond stabilization framework may start to alleviate such risks.

Rationale for the Outlook:

"The rating outlook is stable and balances prospects for further improvements in sovereign credit metrics against several uncertainties including ongoing shifts in the banking supervisory framework and the twin threat of food-price-driven inflation and speculative capital inflows," said Mr. Aninda Mitra, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

Mr. Mitra was speaking on the release of the annual sovereign report on Indonesia on February 10, 2011.

He added that "the stable outlook also incorporates the gradual pace of deepening in the country's capital markets and the recent proposal for the creation of a bond stabilization framework. Over the near to medium term these developments could enhance the government's onshore debt finance-ability. And, if accompanied by financial and price stability and robust FDI inflows, they may provide an uplift to the sovereign rating toward an investment-grade level."

What Could Change the Rating -- Up:

• Greater assurance of continued monetary and price stability and soundness of bank supervision

• A gradual deepening of the local capital and credit markets that support the government's onshore debt finance-ability

• Further evidence of sustained increases in foreign direct investment which would be supportive of the external balance of payments and economic growth prospects

What Could Change the Rating -- Down:

• Sustained loss of inflation control and monetary stability

• A large shock to the country's fiscal, debt, or foreign currency reserve positions -- derived, for instance, from policy mismanagement or a domestic political shock that results in deep deterioration of resident and investor confidence.

Previous rating action & methodology:

Moody's last rating action on Indonesia was on January 17, 2011, at which time the sovereign rating was upgraded to Ba1 with a stable outlook, from Ba2 on review for upgrade.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Sovereign Bond Methodology published in September 2008.

The report can be accessed at www.moodys.com.

*****

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Singapore
Aninda S. Mitra
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308

Singapore
Christian de Guzman
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308

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Moody's: Improving foreign reserves supports Indonesia Ba1 rating, stable outlook
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