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Rating Action:

Moody's Investors Service assigns definitive ratings to RMBS Notes issued by 2011 Popolare Bari SPV Srl

11 Jan 2012

Approximately EUR 552.7 million of Debt Securities rated

Milan, January 11, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today assigned definitive credit ratings to the following classes of notes issued by 2011 Popolare Bari SPV S.r.l.:

....EUR431.1M Class A1 Asset Backed Floating Rate Notes due October 2060, Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR121.6M Class A2 Asset Backed Floating Rate Notes due October 2060, Assigned Aaa (sf)

Moody's has not assigned any rating to the EUR 132,400,000 Class B1 or EUR 37,300,000 Class B2 Asset Backed Floating Rate Notes due October 2060

The notes are backed by a pool of prime Italian residential mortgage loans originated by Banca Popolare di Bari S.c.p.a ("BPB") and Cassa di Risparmio di Orvieto S.p.A. ("CRO") which both belong to the Banca Popolare di Bari group ("BPB group"). This represents the first transaction of residential mortgage loans with BPB group as originator/seller that Moody's rates. The liquidity reserve, which will be funded by principal collections up to an amount equal to 3% of the principal amount outstanding of the notes acts as the main source of liquidity for the Class A1 and Class A2 notes. The cash reserve which is fully funded at closing and equal to 3.5% of the initial balance of the notes serves as a source of liquidity during the time the liquidity reserve is built up. Once the liquidity reserve has been fully funded the cash reserve will amortise to an amount equal to 2% of the initial amount of the notes.

Each portfolio will be serviced by either BPB or CRO and BPB acts as master servicer. Banca Etruria Società Cooperative (Not Rated) acts as back-up servicer for both BPB and CRO. The Representative of the Noteholders (RON), Securitisation Services S.p.A. will help the SPV to find a suitable substitute servicer in case the back-up servicer is not able to enter as servicer when needed, i.e. the RON facilitates the search for a substitute servicer.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings of the notes take into account the credit quality of the underlying mortgage loan pool, the dynamic delinquency data and the vintage data for defaults and recoveries received from the originators as well as the transaction structure. Based on the different datasources Moody's has determined the MILAN Aaa Credit Enhancement and the portfolio expected loss.

The expected portfolio loss of 2.8% of original balance of the blended portfolio at closing and the MILAN Aaa required Credit Enhancement of 15% served as input parameters for Moody's cash flow model, which is based on a probabilistic lognormal distribution as described in the report "Testing Structural Features with the MARCO Model (Moody's Analyser of Residential Cash Flows) published in January 2006".

The key drivers for the MILAN Aaa Credit Enhancement number, which is higher than other prime Italian RMBS transactions, are: (i) 17.4% of the loans in the pool are backed by properties that are not the borrower's main residence; (ii) the month current data has not been provided; (iii) 22.7% of the borrowers are self-employed and 3.8% of the borrowers are retired and for an additional 3.8% their employment type has been classified as other; (iv) around 68.8% of the properties backing the loans are located in the south of Italy; and (v) the MILAN number has been qualitatively adjusted in order to generate a loss distribution with a certain volatility to account for a higher probability of "fat tail" events with respect to the expected loss.

The key drivers for the portfolio expected loss, which is in line with other prime Italian RMBS, are: (i) eleven years of vintage data for defaults based on loans with similar characteristics as the ones in the portfolio has been received for BPB's book, which represent around three quarters of the blended pool, for the CRO book the data received only covers defaults from 2009 an onwards and was therefore of minor relevance; (ii) the vintage data shows that the default rates experienced by the BPB are correlated with the market wide default rates for Italian residential mortgage loans; (iii) the negative outlook that Moody's has on Italian RMBS as further explained in the sector comment "Weakening Italian Economy Drives Negative Outlook for Italian RMBS" published on 18 October 2011; (iv) for the CRO part of the portfolio the default assumption has mainly been based on benchmarking; (v) twelve years of dynamic delinquency data for loan with similar characteristics as the portfolio for the BPB book while for the CRO part around three years of dynamic delinquency data; (vi) for the BPB book eight years of vintage data for recoveries which covers both loans where the recovery process has been finalised and loans where the recovery process is still ongoing, while for the CRO part of the portfolio only three years of vintage data was received.

The V Score for this transaction is Low/Medium, which is in line with the score assigned for the Italian Prime RMBS sector. Four components scored differently compared to the sector score:(i) Quality of Historical Data for the Issuer/Sponsor/Originator which is assessed to be at Medium, higher than the Low/Medium sector's average, given that for CRO data was only provided from 2009 and therefore Moody's had to rely on benchmarking in order to estimate defaults and recoveries for that part of the portfolio, which represents around one quarter of the blended portfolio; (ii) "Experience of, Arrangements Among and Oversight of Transaction Parties" which is assessed to be Medium, higher than the Low/Medium sector's average, because it is the first transaction that CRO participate in and the second that BPB participate in; (iii) "Back-up Servicer Arrangement" which is assessed to be Medium, higher than the Low sector's average, given that the servicers are unrated but this is mitigated by the fact that a back-up servicer has been appointed at closing and the RON will facilitate the search for a substitute servicer if the back-up servicer is unable to enter as servicer; and (iv) Legal Regulatory and Other Uncertainty, which is assessed to be Medium mainly as during the last three years face different renegotiation frameworks, voluntary or obligatory by law, have been launched on a national basis or on a regional basis there are additional ones and it is probable that there will be new ones launched in the future which could impact the future performance of the pool. V Scores are a relative assessment of the quality of available credit information and of the degree of dependence on various assumptions used in determining the rating. High variability in key assumptions could expose a rating to more likelihood of rating changes. The V Score has been assigned accordingly to the report "V Scores and Parameter Sensitivities in the Major EMEA RMBS Sectors" published in April 2009.

Moody's Parameter Sensitivities provide a quantitative/model-indicated calculation of the number of rating notches that a Moody's structured finance security may vary if certain input parameters used in the initial rating process differed. The analysis assumes that the deal has not aged and is not intended to measure how the rating of the security might migrate over time, but rather how the initial rating of the security might have differed if key rating input parameters were varied. Parameter Sensitivities for the typical EMEA RMBS transaction are calculated by stressing key variable inputs in Moody's primary rating model.

If the portfolio expected loss was increased to 5.6% from 2.8%, and all other factors remained the same the model output indicated that the Class A1 and Class A2 notes would still have achieved Aaa.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa published in October 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Other Factors used in this rating are described in Global Structured Finance Operational Risk Guidelines: Moody's Approach to Analyzing Performance Disruption Risk published in June 2011.

In rating this transaction, Moody's used ABSROM to model the cash flows and determine the loss for each tranche. The cash flow model evaluates all default scenarios that are then weighted considering the probabilities of the lognormal distribution assumed for the portfolio default rate. In each default scenario, the corresponding loss for each class of notes is calculated given the incoming cash flows from the assets and the outgoing payments to third parties and noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss or EL for each tranche is the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each default scenario; and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow model in each default scenario for each tranche.

As such, Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios.

As noted in Moody's comment 'Rising Severity of Euro Area Sovereign Crisis Threatens Credit Standing of All EU Sovereigns' (28 November 2011), the risk of sovereign defaults or the exit of countries from the Euro area is rising. As a result, Moody's could lower the maximum achievable rating for structured finance transactions in some countries, which could result in rating downgrades.

The ratings address the expected loss posed to investors by the legal final maturity of the notes. In Moody's opinion, the structure allows for timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal with respect to the Notes by the legal final maturity. Moody's ratings address only the credit risks associated with the transaction. Other non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have a significant effect on yield to investors.

Moody's will monitor this transaction on an ongoing basis. For updated monitoring information, please contact monitor.rmbs@moodys.com.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, and public information.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction.

Further information on the representations and warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors are available on http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF269715.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

David Bergman
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Michelangelo Margaria
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Releasing Office:
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Moody's Investors Service assigns definitive ratings to RMBS Notes issued by 2011 Popolare Bari SPV Srl
No Related Data.
© 2020 Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

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