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I AGREE
Rating Action:

Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ratings of 4 notes issued by BPL Mortgages S.r.l. (SME 2014)

12 Apr 2018

London, 12 April 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has affirmed the ratings on the following ABS SME notes issued by BPL Mortgages S.r.l. (SME 2014) (the "Issuer" ) following its restructuring:

....EUR 1077.4M (current outstanding balance EUR 2942.9M) Class A1-2014 Notes, Affirmed A2 (sf); previously on Oct 13, 2017 Downgraded to A2 (sf)

....EUR 1936.0M (current outstanding balance EUR 635.8M) Class A2-2016 Notes, Affirmed A2 (sf); previously on Oct 13, 2017 Downgraded to A2 (sf)

....EUR 269.3M (current outstanding balance EUR 325.7M) Class B1-2014 Notes, Affirmed Baa1 (sf); previously on Oct 13, 2017 Affirmed Baa1 (sf)

....EUR 1.0M Class B2-2016 Notes, Affirmed Baa1 (sf); previously on Oct 13, 2017 Affirmed Baa1 (sf)

EUR 448.9M (current outstanding balance EUR 737.4M) Class C1-2014 ("Class C1") Asset Backed Notes and EUR 448.0M Class C2-2016 Asset Backed Notes were not rated by Moody's.

BPL Mortgages S.r.l. (SME 2014) (also known as "BPL7") is an existing cash securitisation of secured and unsecured loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) domiciled in Italy closed in 2014. The transaction initially consisted in a securitisation of a portfolio of EUR 1,795.6M originated by Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa ("Banco Popolare") , which is now part of the group Banco BPM S.p.A. ("Banco BPM", Ba1 long term deposit rating, (P)Ba2 Senior unsecured rating). Banco BPM (the "originator") had restructured the transaction in February 2016 with an increased portfolio amount of EUR 3,461.5M. Today's restructuring includes the addition of new loans that were originated by Banca Popolare di Milano S.C. a r.l. (BPM) and by Banco Popolare before and after the merger of the two banks into Banco BPM.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's rating affirmation of the notes following the restructuring of the transaction is primarily based on the credit assessment of the amended portfolio, the updated capital structure, and the transaction linkage to Banco BPM acting as the cash reserve deposit bank.

The transaction amendments include i) an increased portfolio amount made of EUR 5,176.7M of which 28% are loans resulting from the current BPL 7 transaction, 32% are new loans originated by Banco BPM, 32.5% are new loans originated by BPM and 7.5% are loans from BPM Securitisation 3 S.r.l. (a fully repaid sme securitization originated by BPM); ii) a revised capital structure resulting in credit enhancement levels of 29.25% for class A and 23% for class B notes iii) an increased amortising cash reserve of 6.6%. The originator has repurchased all the loans classified as defaulted or more than 51 days in arrears at the time of the transfer date on 26 February 2018. Loans added to the pool were mainly originated between 2016 and 2017.

Moody's notes as credit strengths of the transaction the following factors: (i) the granularity of the portfolio (with an effective number of 2,288 at borrower level); (ii) the high level of collateralisation of the portfolio as 67% of the portfolio is secured by a mortgage (54% by a first lien); (iii) a turbo repayment mechanism for the rated notes; and (iv) the inclusion of an amortizing cash reserve (6.6% of Class A and B notes) designed to provide liquidity coverage and credit enhancement over the life of the transaction.

Moody's notes that the transaction also features a number of credit weaknesses, such as: (i) high industry concentration in the building and real estate sector (around 46% of the portfolio, according to Moody's industry classification); (ii) high degree of linkage to Banco BPM which is acting as account bank of the cash reserve; (iii) the poor historical performance of the BPL7 transaction (iv) the possibility of the servicer to renegotiate several terms and conditions of the loans up to certain limits, such as the lengthening of the loan maturity up to 30 and 10 years maximum provided a respective limit of 10% and 5%, as well as the granting of a principal payment grace period for a period of up to 12 months and for maximum of 3 times (provided such renegotiations are carried out for 20% maximum of the portfolio amount) (v) the lack of a hedging mechanism to mitigate the fixed-floating mismatch on the fixed portion of the portfolio (11% of the pool which can be increased to 16% through renegotiations) and (vi) some limited exposure to set-off risk (around 2%).

KEY COLLATERAL ASSUMPTIONS

Mean default rate: Moody's assumed a mean default rate of 18% over a weighted average life of 4.5 years and based on a default definition of 180 days (equivalent to a B2 proxy rating as per Moody's Idealized Default Rates). This assumption is based on: (1) the performance of the transaction since closing (defaults defined as "sofferenza" and 90+ days in arrears have totalled 11.5% since 2016 restructuring in line with a B3 rating); and (2) the characteristics of the updated loan-by-loan portfolio information. Moody's took also into account the current economic environment and its potential impact on the portfolio's future performance, as well as industry outlooks or past observed cyclicality of sector-specific delinquency and default rates.

Portfolio credit enhancement: Moody's assumed portfolio credit enhancement of 32%, that takes into account the Italian current local currency country ceiling of Aa2.

Recovery rate: Moody's assumed a 50% stochastic mean recovery rate, primarily based on the characteristics of the collateral-specific loan-by-loan portfolio information, complemented by the available historical vintage data.

Default rate volatility: the aforementioned assumptions correspond to a coefficient of variation (i.e. the ratio of standard deviation over the mean default rate explained above) of 52%.

As of 26 February 2018 and after the addition of new loans as part of the restructuring of the transaction, the securitised portfolio is composed of a portfolio of 63,199 contracts amounting to EUR 5,176.7 million. The top industry sector in the pool, in terms of Moody's industry classification, is Construction & Building representing 46% of the total pool. Geographically, the pool is concentrated mostly in Lombardy (47%).The effective number of obligors is 2,288 with the top borrower and top 10 borrowers representing respectively 0.66% and 3.91% of the portfolio and the. The assets were originated mainly between 2010 and 2017 and have a weighted average seasoning of 4.4 years and a weighted average remaining term of 9.1 years. The interest rate is floating for 89% of the pool while the remaining part of the pool bears a fixed interest rate. The weighted average spread on the floating portion is 2.3%, while the weighted average interest on the fixed portion is 3.4%

KEY TRANSACTION STRUCTURE FEATURES

Reserve fund: The transaction benefits from EUR 257.8 million cash reserve fully funded at the time of the latest restructuring, equivalent to 6.6% of the rated notes. The reserve will amortise in line with the rated notes up to a floor of EUR 100 million (or 2.56% current rated notes). The reserve fund provides both credit protection and liquidity protection to the notes over the life of the transaction.

COUNTERPARTY RISK ANALYSIS

Banco BPM (Ba1 long term deposit rating, (P)Ba2 Senior unsecured rating) will act as the servicer of the loans for the issuer.

All of the payments under the assets in the securitised pool are paid into the collection account at Banco BPM and BPM. There is a daily sweep of the funds held in the collection account into the issuer account opened at BNP Paribas Securities Services (Aa3 LT Deposits/P-1 ST Deposits) acting through its Milan Branch. Moody's has taken into account the commingling risk within its cash flow modelling considering an exposure of 1 month of collections.

Banco BPM also acts as deposit bank for the cash reserve. This feature act as a constraint to the ratings on the Class A and B notes based on Moody's methodology evaluating counterparty risks in structured finance transactions published in July 2017.

STRESS SCENARIOS:

Moody's also tested other set of assumptions under its Parameter Sensitivities analysis. For instance, if the assumed default rate of 18% used in determining the initial rating was changed to 22% and the recovery rate of 50% was changed to 40%, the model-indicated rating for Class A and Class B of A2 (sf) and Baa1 (sf) would be Baa2 (sf) and Baa3 (sf) respectively. For more details, please refer to the full Parameter Sensitivity analysis included in the New Issue Report of this transaction.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global Approach to Rating SME Balance Sheet Securitizations" published in August 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS:

The notes' ratings are sensitive to the performance of the underlying portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions that may change. The evolution of the associated counterparties risk, the level of credit enhancement and Italy's country risk could also impact the notes' ratings.

The ratings address the expected loss posed to investors by the legal final maturity of the notes. In Moody's opinion, the structure allows for timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal with respect to the notes by the legal final maturity. Moody's ratings address only the credit risk associated with the transaction. Other non-credit risks have not been addressed but may have a significant effect on yield to investors.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step, Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument. The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario, weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.

Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Gabriele Gramazio
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Carole Gintz
Associate Managing Director
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
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