London, 20 January 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a definitive long-term rating
to a new series of covered bonds issued by Banco Santander, S.A.
(or the issuer) under its mortgage covered bond programme.
Issuer: Banco Santander, S.A. mortgage covered
bond programme
EUR 1000M due 01/20/2016, Assigned Aaa
RATINGS RATIONALE
The covered bonds constitute direct, unconditional and senior obligations
of Banco Santander, S.A. and are secured by the issuer's
entire mortgage loan pool (excluding securitised loans).
The rating takes into account the following factors:
(1) The credit strength of the issuer (Aa2 on review for possible downgrade
/ P-1 / B-).
(2) The structure created by the transaction documents in combination
with the legal framework for Spanish covered bonds.
(3) The credit quality of the assets securing the payment obligations
of the issuer under the covered bonds. The cover assets are residential
and commercial mortgages located in Spain.
(4) As of June 2010, the over-collateralisation level consistent
with the Aaa rating is 16% and the level of over-collateralisation
is 104.5%.
Moody's has assigned a Timely Payment Indicator (TPI) of "Probable" to
the covered bonds.
The ratings assigned by Moody's address the expected loss posed to investors.
Moody's ratings address only the credit risks associated with the transaction.
Other non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have
a significant effect on yield to investors.
The Aaa rating assigned to the existing covered bonds is expected to be
assigned to all subsequent covered bonds issued by the issuer under this
programme and any future rating actions are expected to affect all such
covered bonds. Should there be any exceptions to this, Moody's
will in each case publish details in a separate press release.
KEY RATING ASSUMPTIONS/FACTORS
Covered bond ratings are determined after applying a two-step process:
expected loss analysis and TPI framework analysis.
EXPECTED LOSS: Moody's determines a rating based on the expected
loss on the bond. The primary model used is Moody's Covered Bond
Model (COBOL) which determines expected loss as a function of the issuer's
probability of default, measured by its rating of Aa2, and
the stressed losses on the cover pool assets following issuer default.
As of June 2010, the Cover Pool Losses for this programme are 36.5%.
This is an estimate of the losses Moody's currently models in the event
of issuer default. Cover Pool Losses can be split between Market
Risk of 21% and Collateral Risk of 15.5%.
Market Risk measures losses as a result of refinancing risk and risks
related to interest rate and currency mismatches (these losses may also
include certain legal risks). Collateral Risk measures losses resulting
directly from the credit quality of the assets in the cover pool.
Collateral Risk is derived from the Collateral Score which for this programme
is 23%.
TPI FRAMEWORK: Moody's assigns a "timely payment indicator" (TPI)
which indicates the likelihood that timely payment will be made to covered
bondholders following issuer default. The effect of the TPI framework
is to limit the covered bond rating to a certain number of notches above
the issuer's rating.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The robustness of a covered bond rating largely depends on the credit
strength of the issuer.
The number of notches by which the issuer's rating may be downgraded before
the covered bonds are downgraded under the TPI framework is measured by
the TPI Leeway. Based on the current TPI of "Probable" the TPI
Leeway for this programme is four notches, meaning the issuer rating
would need to be downgraded to Baa1 before the covered bonds are downgraded,
all other things being equal.
A multiple notch downgrade of the covered bonds might occur in certain
limited circumstances. Some examples might be (a) a sovereign downgrade
negatively affecting both the issuer's senior unsecured rating and the
TPI; (b) a multiple notch downgrade of the issuer; or (c) a
material reduction of the value of the cover pool.
For further details on Cover Pool Losses, Collateral Risk,
Market Risk, Collateral Score and TPI Leeway across all covered
bond programmes rated by Moody's please refer to "Moody's EMEA Covered
Bonds Monitoring Overview", published quarterly. These figures
are based on the most recent reporting by the issuer and are subject to
change over time.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Rating Approach
to Covered Bonds, published in March 2010.
In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance
credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered
users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings.
Moody's Investors Service considers the quality of information available
on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining
a credit rating.
The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agents
and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible
Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the
three years preceding the Credit Rating Action. Please see the
ratings disclosure page www.moodys.com/disclosures on our
website for further information.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to
a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized
and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's
Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable
and accurate based on the information that is available to it.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies
used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
London
Justyna Kochanska
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Madrid
Juan Pablo Soriano
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's Investors Service has assigned a definitive long-term rating to a new series of covered bonds issued by Banco Santander, S.A. (or the issuer) under its mortgage covered bond programme.
