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Global Credit Research - 14 Oct 2010
Irish Prime RMBS Indices - August 2010
London, 14 October 2010 -- The performance of the Irish prime residential mortgage-backed
securities (RMBS) market continued to deteriorate during August 2010,
according to the latest indices published by Moody's Investors Service.
The 90-days-plus delinquency trend increased gradually to
4.83%, up from 4.08% in May.
Loans that had been delinquent for more than 360 days, and that
are used as a proxy for defaults, accounted for 1.28%
of the outstanding portfolios in August, up from 0.43%
a year ago. Moreover, Moody's annualised total redemption
rate (TRR) trend decreased to 5.29% in August, compared
with 5.72% in July.
Moody's notes that the prolonged foreclosure process has led to
a lack of clarity about the likely impact on losses. This opacity
has been further exacerbated by the Irish government's initiatives,
which prohibit lenders from commencing legal proceedings in the first
12 months of arrears. As the recovery in the labour market is expected
to be slow, Moody's expects a large portion of loans that
have fallen into arrears to remain in arrears. Hence, the
forbearance may simply be postponed or may potentially increase losses.
On 23 July 2010, Moody's placed the ratings of 12 Irish RMBS transactions
on review for possible downgrade for worse-than-expected
performance. On 12 August, Moody's downgraded three classes
of notes issued by Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No.
12 Limited. On 13 August, Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage
Securitisation No. 8 p.l.c. exercised its
optional redemption right on all its notes. On 1 September,
Moody's downgraded the ratings of all notes issued by Phoenix Funding
2 Limited and Phoenix Funding 3 Limited.
On 14 October, Moody's placed on review for possible downgrade ratings
on seven Irish RMBS transactions. The rating review follows Moody's
decision on 5 October 2010 to place the Aa2 Irish government bond rating
as well as the ratings of some Irish banks on review for possible downgrade.
In placing the senior ratings of some Irish RMBS on review, Moody's
considered the likely performance of the transactions in the context of
high stress scenarios that assume various combinations, such as
a possible restructuring of the government's debt, a banking system
crisis and a more severe version of the required austerity measures.
Irish RMBS that have credit enhancement levels of above 20-25%
have not been placed on review.
Two transactions closed and were rated by Moody's: Celtic
Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No. 16 Ltd (April 2010)
and Fastnet securities 8 Ltd (July 2010) -- however, these
transactions are not included in the Irish Prime RMBS index as they contain
more than 50% non-owner-occupied mortgages.
Since 1998, a total of 30 Irish prime RMBS transactions have been
launched and rated by Moody's (17 outstanding). As of August
2010, the total pool balance in the Irish prime RMBS market amounted
to EUR39.23 billion, compared to EUR38.46 billion
one year previously, which constitutes a year-on-year
increase of 2%.
Moody's outlook for the Irish RMBS market is negative (see the report
"EMEA ABS, CMBS & RMBS Asset Performance Outlooks, July
Overall, Moody's observes that Ireland has not been able to
sustain economic growth. After reporting some growth in Q1 2010,
the country's GDP contracted again in Q2 2010 by 1.2%
quarter over quarter. Ireland is suffering from one of the worst
unemployment rates in the eurozone: 13.9% versus the
regional average of 10%. Ireland's property market,
which had been a major source of growth during the boom years, is
still in a downturn despite falls in house prices of around 40%
from their peak in 2007. Moody's expects the Irish economy
to contract in 2010 for the third year in a row. In 2009 alone,
GDP had fallen by nearly 8%, when the eurozone economy shrank
by 4%. The Irish government has had to provide support to
key financial institutions and, in doing so, has increased
its own liabilities. Moody's expects the rising cost of government
debt to increase benchmark interest rates for other agents, including
household borrowers. To meet its fiscal needs, the government
will continue to increase taxes, which in turn will place pressure
on household borrowers.
Going forward, Moody's Irish Prime RMBS indices will be published
on a monthly basis. The indices can be found on www.moodys.com
in the Structured Finance sub-directory under the Research &
Ratings tab, under the Structured Indices sub-category of
In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance
credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered
users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
Moody's: Irish RMBS Performance Continued to Deteriorate In August 2010
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