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Rating Action:

Moody's Latin America downgrades Argentine financial institutions' ratings; reviews for further downgrade

 The document has been translated in other languages

04 Sep 2019

NOTE: On September 6, 2019, the List of Affected Credit Ratings accessible via hyperlink from this press release was corrected to include the correct “Watch Status” for the LT Senior Unsecured (Domestic) ratings of John Deere Credit Compania Financiera S.A. The first paragraph of the press release was also edited to clarify the scope of the action. Revised release follows.

NOTE: On September 13, 2019, the List of Affected Credit Ratings accessible via hyperlink from this press release was corrected to include the correct Watch Status for the NSR LT Senior Unsecured (Domestic) ratings of John Deere Credit Compania Financiera S.A. and the LT Counterparty Risk Assessment of John Deere Credit Compania Financiera S.A. and Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires S.A.

Buenos Aires City, September 04, 2019 -- Moody's Latin America ACR S.A. has today downgraded the foreign and local currency long term ratings in its global and national scales, as well as the assessments, of 24 Argentine financial institutions, consisting of 22 banks, 1 finance company and Mercado a Término de Buenos Aires S.A.(MATba). In addition, all the long-term ratings of these entities have been placed on review for further downgrade. At the same time, Moody's affirmed the Not Prime (NP) short term global local and foreign currency deposit ratings of these entities.

The rating actions follow the announcement by Moody's Investors Service published on 30 August 2019 that it had downgraded Argentina's government bond rating to Caa2, from B2, and lowered Argentina's country ceilings for debt and deposits. For additional information, please refer to the related press release: "Moody's downgrades Argentina's ratings to Caa2; places ratings under review for downgrade https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Argentinas-ratings-to-Caa2-places-ratings-under-review--PR_408530".

Moody's has today also revised its Macro Profile for Argentina's banking system to "Very Weak -", from "Weak", to incorporate the more challenging operating environment for banks and the uncertainties related to their funding conditions in particular resulting from increasing pressures on Argentina's government finances and liquidity.

Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_204593 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this Press Release and identifies each affected issuer.

RATINGS RATIONALE

ARGENTINA MACRO PROFILE LOWERED TO VERY WEAK - FROM WEAK

Moody's has lowered its Macro Profile for Argentina to "Very Weak-" from "Weak" to reflect the country's weakened credit profile as it balances comparatively high economic development with significant exposure to foreign-currency-denominated debt, the latter of which has manifested itself in a material weakening of the sovereign's fiscal strength as the country wades through its prolonged currency crisis. The government's recent decision to delay repayment on short-term debt and stated intention of restructuring a portion of medium and long-term debt signals mounting pressure on government finances, rising policy uncertainty and a rising expectation of investor losses in the event of a restructuring.

The outcome of the primary presidential elections in August led to a severe market reaction, which in turn raised the government's debt load, lowered debt affordability, and reduced funding sources. Also, the substantial deterioration of investor confidence after the elections that led to a sharp drop in banks' foreign currency deposits, pose a significant risk to banks' funding profile going forward. In addition, the banking system's deposit dollarization and the historically high susceptibility of dollar deposits to outflows in times of financial and exchange rate volatility increase the challenges to banks' funding and liquidity management. Notwithstanding banks' current liquidity buffers being very high, the banks' liquid assets are either directly or indirectly exposed to the sovereign risk, because they are mostly invested in short-term Leliqs (seven-day central bank notes that are used to set the daily benchmark interest rate), or to Government bonds, heightening the vulnerability to measures that can disrupt their access to liquidity.

DOWNGRADE OF LONG-TERM RATINGS AND ASSESSMENTS

The rating actions were prompted by the downgrade of Argentina's government bond rating to Caa2, from B2, to reflect the rising risks to investors as a consequence of mounting pressures on the government's finances, most recently reflected in the government's decision to delay repayment on over $8 billion of short-term debt. In addition, the decision to place ratings under review for further downgrade reflects the risks of continued losses to investors as the government has signalled the intent to also restructure portions of Argentina's medium- and long-term debt.

Rising policy uncertainly and market turmoil have led to higher inflation and foreign exchange rates, exposing banks to a challenging operating environment that weakens their credit profile. Moreover, the rating actions take into account the high underlying inter-linkages between the banks' and finance companies' standalone credit risk profiles and that of the sovereign, in light of their direct and indirect exposures to the sovereign risk, in the form of sizable government and central bank securities holdings. Moody's estimates that these holdings represented about 20% of banks' total assets in early August 2019, and account for a relevant share of the banks' total earnings.

Current economic conditions, including recession, high inflation and extraordinarily high interest rates will significantly erode banks' asset quality, as loan repayment capacity deteriorates, and will increase their funding costs, hurting banks' inflation-adjusted profitability. In addition, even though banks' predominantly deposit-based funding was relatively stable since Argentina's currency crisis in May 2018, deposits have been declining since the primary elections in early August. Total private sector bank dollar deposits fell by 18% amid increased political uncertainty, weakening banks' funding and liquidity profiles. Risks arising from recent currency control measures by the Central Bank of Argentina limiting access to dollars are largely incorporated in the ratings, but further measures could yet affect banks' creditworthiness as market conditions evolve. Hence, ratings were placed on review for further possible downgrade, in line with the review for downgrade of the sovereign ratings.

In most cases, we have downgraded the financial institutions' local and foreign currency long term deposit and debt ratings and assessments by three notches, in line with the 3-notch downgrade of the sovereign rating. In summary banks and finance companies without foreign parents are now rated Caa2. Those banks and finance companies with foreign parents are now primarily rated Caa1 given our view that these parents may provide some form of liquidity support to debt holders and depositors.

We have also lowered the issuer rating of MATba (Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires) to Caa2 from B1, in line with the sovereign rating, to reflect the concerns that growing policy uncertainty will affect the commodities, FX and derivatives exchange's business volumes, profitability, liquidity and ability to manage risk. MATba is exposed to regulatory changes that could affect commodities exporters and the US dollar market, leading to a reduction in the entity's operations. Despite the absence of financial debt and the credit positive expanded business diversification following the conclusion of the merger with ROFEX in August, a significant portion of MATba's capital and margin calls are placed in medium and long-term government bonds, which are subject to a new maturity schedule, and that could increase capital and liquidity needs at its central counterparty clearing activities, ultimately exposing the company to rising operating risks.

Moody's noted that the National Scale ratings have been downgraded by multiple notches and are now positioned between a rating range of Baa3.ar and B3.ar, reflecting the financial institutions' relative strength and any support assumption. MATba's national scale issuer rating was downgraded to B1.ar, from Aa2.ar, and remains at the high-end of the scale for a Caa2 global scale rating, incorporating the entity's dominant position in its core segments, the agricultural commodities and US futures exchange, and the lack of financial leverage, a key component of its creditworthiness.

Moody's published an update to its National Scale Rating (NSR) map for Argentina to reflect the downgrade of the government's long-term issuer rating. Moody's NSRs are ordinal rankings of creditworthiness relative to other credits within a given country, which offer enhanced credit differentiation among local credits. NSRs are generated from Global Scale Ratings (GSRs) through correspondences, or maps, specific to each country. However, unlike GSRs, Moody's NSRs are not intended to rank credits across multiple countries. Instead, they provide a measure of relative creditworthiness within a single country. The full maps can be accessed through the "Index of Current and Superseded Compendia of National Scale Rating Maps by Country". As a result of the rating action on Argentina and the expected impact on other ratings, the NSR mapping was revised, from the previous map based on a Ba3 anchor point, to the one based on a B1 anchor point. Based on our rating methodology, Mapping National Scale Ratings from Global Scale Ratings, published on May 2016 ( https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_189032), the anchor point can never be lower than B1 even when the sovereign rating is lower as Argentina's is now. The map based on B1 provides ample ability to differentiate and rank order credits, even if some of the higher NSR ratings are no longer accessible.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE/DOWNGRADE

An upgrade is unlikely for banks in Argentina because the ratings are on review for possible downgrade. However, the outlook could be returned to stable following a stabilization of Argentina's sovereign ratings outlook. A downgrade could be driven by a downgrade of Argentine sovereign ratings, by further deterioration in the country's operating environment, and/or a higher-than-expected deterioration of the financial institutions' asset quality, that would lead to material decline in profitability levels, and thus, capital ratios, reducing their loss-absorption capacity amidst a highly negative credit cycle.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Procedures Manual for Rating of Deposits, Debt Instruments and Shares of Financial Institutions published in January 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com.ar for a copy of this methodology.

Moody's National Scale Credit Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale credit ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".za" for South Africa. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale credit ratings, please refer to Moody's Credit rating Methodology published in May 2016 entitled "Mapping National Scale Ratings from Global Scale Ratings". While NSRs have no inherent absolute meaning in terms of default risk or expected loss, a historical probability of default consistent with a given NSR can be inferred from the GSR to which it maps back at that particular point in time. For information on the historical default rates associated with different global scale rating categories over different investment horizons, please see http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1174796.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.ar.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

For issuers domiciled in Argentina, the regulatory report related to this rating action is available on www.moodys.com.ar.

The below contact information is provided for information purposes only. Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com.ar, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.

Please see www.moodys.com.ar for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.ar for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Maria Valeria Azconegui
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Latin America ACR
Ing. Butty 240
16th Floor
Buenos Aires City C1001AFB
Argentina
JOURNALISTS: 1 800 666 3506
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

M. Celina Vansetti-Hutchins
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Latin America ACR
Ing. Butty 240
16th Floor
Buenos Aires City C1001AFB
Argentina
JOURNALISTS: 1 800 666 3506
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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