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Announcement:

Moody's: Majority of Russian corporates able to manage refinancing risks in face of Ukraine dispute

 The document has been translated in other languages

11 Apr 2014

London, 11 April 2014 -- The aggregate exposure of rated Russian non-financial corporates to debt denominated in foreign currency is manageable, says Moody's Investors Service in a Special Comment report on the sector published today. Substantial foreign currency cash balances and export revenues help reduce the risk, while financing from local banks could provide a fallback if access to global financial and debt capital markets dried up.

Moody's report, entitled "Russian Corporates: Refinancing Risks Manageable for Most Sectors, Despite Ongoing Ukraine Dispute", is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release.

"The sectors with the least overall exposure to refinancing risk are the oil & gas, telecoms, utilities and infrastructure sectors, since we estimate that their aggregate cash and deposits would be sufficient to cover most or all of their debt maturities until end-June 2015," says Artem Frolov, a Moody's Vice President -- Senior Analyst and co-author of the report. "Conversely, the chemicals and mining sectors are the most exposed to refinancing risk as, based on our estimates, their aggregated cash and deposits would only cover 42% and 25%, respectively, of their debt maturities between 1 January 2014 and 30 June 2015," continues Mr. Frolov.

In its report, Moody's notes that among the 60 rated issuers it analysed, 47 have a total of $64.2 billion of debt maturities denominated in foreign currency, of which more than $14.7 billion is in public debt instruments including Eurobonds. This is a key source of exposure if Russian corporates' access to global financial and debt capital markets were to become constrained. The remaining 13 rated issuers have either no debt denominated in foreign currency maturing in the 18-month period between 1 January 2014 and 30 June 2015 or no debt denominated in foreign currency at all in their total outstanding debt.

In addition, Moody's notes that many rated Russian corporates have large cash balances in foreign currency and generate a proportion of their revenues in "hard" foreign currency, which mitigates the foreign currency-related refinancing risk. Based on available data at end-2013, Moody's estimates that around 45% of rated issuers' total cash is denominated in foreign currency and that around 50% of their expected operating cash flows generated during the following 18-month period would be denominated in foreign currency.

Moody's assumes that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR), which has ample foreign currency reserves (estimated at $435 billion as at March 2014), would look to ensure that there are no foreign currency shortages in the system. Rated Russian corporates have around $63 billion of medium- and long-term available credit facilities, of which around $14 billion is denominated in foreign currency and available under their loan agreements with domestic banks. The foreign currency liquidity of Russia's banking system depends to a large extent on the foreign currency resources of the CBR.

Subscribers can access the report at https://www.moodys.com/research/Russian-Corporates-Refinancing-Risks-Manageable-for-Most-Sectors-Despite-Ongoing--PBC_166836

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Artem Frolov
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Limited, Russian Branch
7th floor, Four Winds Plaza
21 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya St.
Moscow 125047
Russia

David Staples
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
Telephone: 00971 4237 9536

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Moody's: Majority of Russian corporates able to manage refinancing risks in face of Ukraine dispute
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