Singapore, December 05, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") says that small island sovereigns
are relatively susceptible to the physical effects of climate change,
which can be felt via shocks like storms and floods, as well as
trends like higher global temperatures and rising sea levels.
Based on an assessment of the proportion of low-lying land,
size of landmass, scale of the economy and concentration in climate-related
sectors, Moody's has identified 18 rated small islands as
particularly susceptible to climate change.
Moody's conclusions are contained in its just-released report,
"Sovereigns -- Global, Small island credit profiles resilient
to near-term climate shocks, but climate trends pose longer-term
risks".
The sovereign credit profiles of small islands take into account the medium-term
vulnerabilities to climate change, primarily through weaker economic
strength. As such, Moody's does not expect single climate
shocks to have credit implications unless they are much more severe than
its assessments of these sovereigns' exposure and resilience suggest.
Given significant uncertainty over the impact of long-term climate
trends and mitigating actions to raise resilience, slowly unfolding
climate trends can affect credit profiles. For instance,
under current climate trend projections applied to research by DARA and
the Climate Vulnerable Forum, the GDP levels of small islands could
be 4% lower by 2030 compared to a world with no climate change.
Mitigating actions include investment in climate change-resilient
infrastructure and technology. Higher income levels, economic
diversification, participation in insurance funds, and access
to foreign support would also improve resilience.
With very few exceptions, small islands tend to have smaller economies.
This limits the amount of internal resources available for governments
to build climate change-resilient infrastructure and insure against
climate shocks. Most of these small islands, except Bahrain
(B1 negative), Hong Kong (Aa2 stable), Macao (Aa3 stable)
and Singapore (Aaa stable), have smaller economies than the smallest
United States of America (Aaa stable) state, Vermont (Aaa stable),
for example.
Fiji (Ba3 stable), Solomon Islands (B3 stable) and St. Vincent
and the Grenadines (B3 stable) are among the most exposed and least resilient,
given their very small economies, high concentration in agriculture
and/or sea-based tourism, frequent natural disasters,
and low income levels.
The Bahamas (Baa3 negative) and Maldives (B2 stable) are also highly exposed,
although the situation is somewhat mitigated by higher income levels,
while Jamaica (B3 stable) has the lowest resilience due to low income
levels and the government's limited fiscal flexibility.
Cyprus (Ba3 positive), Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore and
Trinidad & Tobago (Ba1 stable) are the least vulnerable, as
the smaller share of agriculture and tourism in economic activity --
and in the case of Macao, the lower climate-dependence of
tourism -- greater economic diversity and/or more favorable geographic
locations imply a lower exposure to climate change. These sovereigns
are also supported by greater resilience owing to their fiscal strength
and/or their higher levels of development.
Moody's says that the credit implications of climate trends will
also depend on how mitigating actions shape resilience. In particular,
with many small islands lacking the financial resources and technical
know-how to adequately address climate change, the availability
of insurance or pooled resources and foreign financial support would help.
For instance, most of the Caribbean small islands in the Moody's
study -- with the exception of St. Maarten -- are members
of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, which pools
resources and limits the impact of a disaster on a government's balance
sheet.
The United Nations and the World Bank also actively support small islands
in times of disaster. However, there is no global insurance
initiative at present for small island developing states in general.
The small island sovereigns in the Moody's study are, in ascending
order of landmass: Macao, St. Maarten (Baa2,
ratings under review), Bermuda (A2 stable), Cayman Islands
(Aa3 stable), Maldives, Malta (A3 stable), St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados (Caa3 stable), Singapore,
Bahrain, Hong Kong, Mauritius (Baa1 stable), Trinidad
& Tobago, Cyprus, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Fiji
and Solomon Islands.
Subscribers can read the full report at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1097799
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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For
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for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Christian Fang
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
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Atsi Sheth
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
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Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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