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Announcement:

Moody's: More rated Chinese companies are likely to be affected as trade dispute with US escalates

 The document has been translated in other languages

07 Aug 2018

Hong Kong, August 07, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the latest development in the trade dispute between the US and China expands the categories of Moody's-rated Chinese companies exposed to US tariffs.

Moody's notes that on 1 August, the US announced plans to raise tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.

"The new list of products expands the categories of Moody's-rated companies exposed to the planned US tariffs, because it includes a wider range of products than earlier lists," says Lina Choi, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

"And, as the US expands its list of Chinese products subject to tariffs, a growing number of Moody's-rated Chinese companies will likely be affected through the production value chain," adds Choi.

Moody's conclusions are included in its just-released report titled "Rated non-financial companies — China: More companies are likely to be affected as trade dispute with US escalates," and is authored by Choi as well as Lillian Li, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

The effect of the tariffs will be amplified as the lists grow, because companies exposed to higher-cost commodity products - which they use as as raw materials - will gradually diversify, or change their product sources to suppliers outside China, the US, or both.

The resulting changes in demand for and supply of certain commodities across borders will cause fluctuations in pricing, which will in turn lower the predictability of Moody's-rated Chinese companies' revenue and cash flow generation.

Given the wide range of Chinese products the US is targeting, component manufacturers for consumer appliances and electronic products such as computers, computer accessories, and video and audio equipment will also see an indirect effect. Moody's estimates that about 30% of China's total exports to the US in 2017 consisted of consumer appliances and electronics, based on data from the US Census Bureau.

Most of the products from Moody's-rated component manufacturers are not directly exposed to the proposed and implemented tariffs. However, if their downstream customers are affected, Moody's expects a price impact along the value chain, which will take some time to surface.

Subscribers can access the report at:

http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1135885

The report may also be found through Moody's topic page "China's trade-off: Deleveraging and stability", available at http://www.moodys.com/chinarebalancing. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.

Recent Moody's publications relating to China's trade-off include:

• Property & casualty insurers - China: Regulatory focus to curb aggressive risk-taking underpins stable outlook

• Property -- China: Rated developers to face high refinancing needs over the next 12 months

• Inside China: July-2018

• Government of China: Easing poses limited fiscal risk, but suggests policy trade-offs are starting to bite

• Mass transit sector — China: China's new policy on metro construction is positive for sector development

• Auto ABS — China: Auto lease ABS transactions face incremental risks compared to auto loan deals

• Government of China — A1 stable: Annual credit analysis

• Property — China: Rated high-yield developers' liquidity remains tight

• Renminbi Bonds Monitor: June 2018

• Semiconductors — Korea and China: Korean chipmakers will maintain tech leads despite China's efforts to catch up

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Lina Choi
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Clement Cheuk Yiu Wong
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
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