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14 Mar 2016
London, 14 March 2016 -- Rated Norwegian covered bonds will be able to withstand the effects of
persistently low oil prices on two key Norwegian regions, says Moody's
Investors Service.
"Norway's two key oil-dependent regions, Rogaland and
Hordaland, have the highest rates of oil-related employment.
Persistently low oil prices may reduce employment levels and weigh on
the rental cash flows and values of properties that back pools of mortgage
assets", observes Valentina di Vito, an Analyst at Moody's.
"That said, Norwegian covered bonds will be able to withstand
a moderate deterioration in the pools' credit quality because of
the programmes' surplus over-collateralisation. In
our opinion, these covered bonds will prove resilient in the event
of a weakening of the credit strength of the banks supporting the covered
bonds, which may occur if lower oil prices weaken Norway's
economy", notes Mrs. di Vito.
Moody's report, entitled "Five Norwegian Covered Bonds
Exposed to Oil Price-Sensitive Markets But Show Resilience",
is available on www.moodys.com. The rating agency's
report does not constitute a rating action.
Link to the report: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1017028
Of the 17 Norwegian mortgage covered bonds that Moody's rates,
five have a material geographical exposure to the two regions in Norway.
Therefore, for most Moody's-rated Norwegian mortgage covered
bonds, there is a low risk that the quality of cover assets will
deteriorate if oil prices remain low and weaken the economies of Rogaland
and Hordaland.
However, for the programmes that have such exposures, there
is a greater risk of being affected by a weakening of the Rogaland and
Hordaland economies. Moody's research shows five covered
bonds have exposure to properties in Rogaland and Hordaland that exceeds
20% of their cover pools. These covered bonds are Fana Sparebank
Boligkreditt Covered Bond, Sparebanken Vest Boligkreditt AS Covered
Bond, and SR-Boligkreditt AS Mortgage Covered Bond,
DNB NOR Naeringskreditt Covered Bond and Bustadkreditt Sogn og Fjordane
AS Covered Bonds. The five Norwegian covered bonds with material
geographical exposure to the Rogaland and Hordaland regions in their cover
pools have surplus OC and to be able to withstand a moderate deterioration
in the credit quality of their cover pools. At current OC levels,
some surplus OC would remain in these five covered bond programmes,
even in a sensitivity scenario where the covered bond anchor is lowered
by one notch.
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Valentina di Vito
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
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London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
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Moody's: Norwegian areas with oil price-related unemployment and property pressure won't affect covered bonds
No Related Data.
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