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Announcement:

Moody's: Outlook on Swiss banking system changed to stable from negative

14 Jun 2011

Frankfurt am Main, June 14, 2011 -- The outlook on the Swiss banking system has been changed to stable from negative, says Moody's Investors Service in its annual Banking System Outlook published today.

The change in outlook mainly reflects (i) the swift recovery of the Swiss economy; (ii) reduced uncertainty about likely changes to banking secrecy laws, and (iii) the improving profitability, capital and liquidity profiles of the large banks.

The outlook expresses Moody's expectations for the fundamental credit conditions in this sector over the next 12-18 months.

ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Switzerland has been among the European economies that were least affected by the global financial crisis and subsequent global recession. We therefore expect continued solid economic growth with very low unemployment during the outlook horizon. Together with solid government finances, this contributes to an overall stable operating environment for banks.

Offsetting factors that constrain Moody's outlook are relatively low margins generated by domestic banking business and the rating agency's expectation that asset quality metrics may deteriorate moderately from the recent very strong levels. This is due to signs of overheating in selected regional property markets and the negative impact of the strong Swiss franc on export-oriented business borrowers as well as on the cost base of internationally-oriented wealth managers.

IMPROVEMENTS IN KEY METRICS

"Profitability for the overall banking system has improved and is at a sustainable level, supporting the outlook change to stable," explains Carola Schuler, a Managing Director in Moody's Financial Institutions Group.

Swiss-based wealth managers continue to experience money inflows, as strong business growth from emerging market clients and international branches more than offset some outflows from European clients. Margins, however, remain mostly below pre-crisis level, reflecting continued client caution in the face of global macroeconomic uncertainty. Regional and cantonal banks showed good earnings resilience during the crisis, but face increasing margin pressure reflecting intense competition.

The Swiss banking system continues to benefit from favourable liquidity and well-functioning funding markets, consistent with the stable system outlook. The disruptions in the Swiss interbank market affecting the large banks during the crisis have now been mostly overcome and confidence has been restored. Furthermore, we believe that the proposed new liquidity requirements will enhance the system's resilience to prolonged market disruptions.

BANKING SECRECY LAWS

An important regulatory change will result from ongoing negotiations with the UK and Germany on withholding tax for private banking clients. Moody's views the negotiations as positive for the Swiss banking system since they reduce some uncertainty over changes to banking secrecy rules, while safeguarding the core principle of confidentiality.

However, developments in banking secrecy rules remain uncertain and may weigh on the Swiss private banks, as the exact conditions of the withholding tax for UK and German private banking clients remain to be finalized. It is also unclear whether other European countries will follow this example.

Moody's stable banking system outlook is consistent with its overall favourable view of the economic environment and also with the stable outlooks on most of Moody's individual Swiss bank ratings. In contrast, Moody's has a negative outlook on the ratings for the two largest banks (UBS and Credit Suisse). This reflects (i) the continued competitive, capital, and profitability challenges in their trading and investment banking businesses; (ii) the potential for lower systemic support for these banks; and (iii) for UBS, the need to further rebuild client confidence within its wealth management business.

Moody's report, entitled "Banking System Outlook: Switzerland", is available on www.moodys.com

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Frankfurt am Main
Mathias Kuelpmann
Senior Vice President
Financial Institutions Group

Frankfurt am Main
Carola Schuler
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: Outlook on Swiss banking system changed to stable from negative
No Related Data.
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