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Announcement:

Moody's: Outlook on UK banking system raised to stable reflecting increased resilience

02 Aug 2017

London, 02 August 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has raised its outlook on the UK's banking system to stable from negative as banks' stronger credit profiles have increased their resilience to weakening operating conditions. UK banks will remain healthy due to improved capital positions, strong loan quality and robust liquidity and funding positions.

The outlook expresses Moody's expectation of how bank creditworthiness will evolve in the UK over the next 12-18 months.

The report "Banking System Outlook - United Kingdom: Increased resilience to weaker operating conditions supports stable outlook," is now available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link at the end of this press release. The research is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.

"Banks' key credit metrics have generally strengthened relative to a year ago," said Mr. Andrea Usai, a Senior Vice President at Moody's. "Although we still expect the operating environment to deteriorate given heightened uncertainty prior to the UK leaving the EU, banks are better placed to withstand the tougher conditions," added Mr. Usai.

"Profitability will remain stable, though with marked differences between banks," said Mr. Usai. "Cheap wholesale funding from the Bank of England's Term Funding Scheme will help, and while we expect credit costs to rise for all banks, lower litigation charges should boost earnings for some large banks."

Nonetheless, Moody's expects that operating conditions for banks will deteriorate modestly over the next 12-18 months, driven by heightened uncertainty as the UK prepares to leave the European Union, although the departure itself will not take place until beyond the outlook period. The rating agency expects the UK economy to slow, impacting banks' revenue and credit quality. Increasing competition and persistently low interest rates will also strain banks' net interest margins.

UK banks have healthy credit profiles, with non-performing loans equivalent to 2.2% of gross loans at the end of 2016, down from 2.7% a year earlier. While slower economic growth will likely lead to a slight increase in delinquent loans, Moody's believes that banks' robust solvency will help them absorb any unexpected losses.

Moody's said that UK banks' capitalization is robust, as evidenced by a tangible common equity / risk-weighted assets ratio of 18.2% at end-2016, which represents a 50 basis point increase from a year earlier and results in an increased ability to absorb unexpected losses. The increase in UK banks' regulatory capitalization levels was driven by a combination of profit retention, business and asset disposals, improved data quality and internal model enhancements.

Funding and liquidity will also remain key credit strengths for UK banks. Banks have maintained good access to wholesale markets in the aftermath of last year's EU referendum, and Moody's expects this to continue over the outlook period. The Bank of England's post-referendum monetary policy initiatives have also supported banks' market access and resulted in credit spreads tightening.

Subscribers can access the report at

https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1082451

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Andrea Usai
Senior Vice President
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Nicholas Hill
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
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