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Announcement:

Moody's: Outlook will stabilise for EMEA's unregulated utilities sector in 2015

20 Nov 2014

London, 20 November 2014 -- Reduced pressure on conventional generation earnings coupled with less political and regulatory intervention has changed the outlook for the unregulated EMEA electricity and gas utilities sector to stable from negative over the next 12-18 months, says Moody's Investors Service in a new Industry Outlook report on the sector.

Moody's outlook for the unregulated EMEA electric and gas utilities sector has been negative since 2010.

Moody's report, entitled "EMEA Electric & Gas Utilities: Easing pressure on generation earnings and less intrusive political and regulatory intervention support stable outlook", is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release.

"Our new stable, but weak, outlook reflects the view that much of the downside risk for EMEA's utilities sector has already crystallised in lower earnings expectations," says Niel Bisset, a Moody's Senior Vice President and author of the report. "Following a further decline in 2014, we see sector profitability overall stabilising from 2015 to reflect reducing pressure on generation earnings and less political and regulatory intervention."

Moody's expects the decline in the profitability of conventional generation to slow from 2015, following years of steep declines. This reflects the rating agency's estimates for power prices in most markets to be range bound over the next 12-18 months based on flat/minimal demand growth, overall stable commodity price expectations and flat net installed capacity. In addition, thermal generators have in many markets already suffered a steep loss in share of output to renewables.

Political and regulatory intervention risk against utilities has crystallised in heavy cuts to the sector's earnings, especially in Germany, Spain and Italy. The risk of negative intervention in the European utility sector remains but is for the most part related to the issue of affordability, while political risk from tariff deficits and fiscal imbalances has either been largely addressed or receded. If these residual risks were to crystallise, Moody's believes they would result in more modest cuts to earnings than in the last two years.

Moody's outlook could revert to negative if overall profitability were to decline in 2015, whether because conventional generation earnings declined by more than expected or because other business streams yielded lower returns than planned.

Subscribers can access the report via this link

http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1000593

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Niel Bisset
Senior Vice President
Infrastructure Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Monica Merli
MD - Infrastructure Finance
Infrastructure Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: Outlook will stabilise for EMEA's unregulated utilities sector in 2015
No Related Data.
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