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30 Oct 2013
Madrid, October 30, 2013 -- The outlook for Portugal's banking system remains negative,
unchanged since 2008, says Moody's Investors Service in a
new report published today. Persistently high unemployment and
subdued domestic demand will continue to negatively affect banks'
performance, whilst further asset-quality deterioration and
the consequent need for increased provisioning will further constrain
banks' already weak profitability.
The new report, entitled "Banking System Outlook: Portugal",
is now available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers
can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press
release.
Moody's says that the operating environment for Portuguese banks
will remain challenging over the next 12-18 months, and weak
growth prospects will continue to constrain banks' business volumes,
revenue generation and asset quality across all major asset classes.
Domestic demand, the principal driver of bank performance in Portugal's
economy, remains very subdued owing to high unemployment,
the ongoing deleveraging of the private sector, as well as declining
disposable household income.
The weak operating environment will prompt further asset-quality
deterioration with higher delinquencies likely in the corporate and consumer
lending segments, which are more closely correlated to the economic
cycle. System-wide problem loans reached 7.3%
of total loans at the end of July 2013, from 6.1%
at the end of July 2012. Moody's also says that high unemployment
levels and declining disposable income will exert pressure on household
mortgage lending, diminishing this segment's resilience.
Capital bases will weaken further due to asset-quality deterioration
and very weak profitability, reversing the 2012 trend prompted by
more stringent regulatory thresholds and significant public-sector
support. Pressure on capital levels will be partially mitigated
by the ongoing deleveraging that banks are currently implementing as part
of their five-year funding and capital plans initiated in 2012
under the supervision of Bank of Portugal and the Troika.
Moody's expects that the banks' earnings will remain very
weak during our outlook period and note that a large number of Portuguese
banks are reporting losses. Low interest rates, the growing
amount of non-interest earning assets, banks' deleveraging
strategies as well as the recessionary environment have prompted a significant
contraction in pre-provision income levels for many banks.
In addition, loan-loss provisions will continue to rise and,
for most banks, will likely exceed pre-provision earnings.
Subscribers can access this report via this link: https://www.moodys.com/research/Banking-System-Outlook-Portugal--PBC_159503
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Maria Jose Mori
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A.
Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta
Madrid 28002
Spain
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
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Johannes Felix Wassenberg
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
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Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A.
Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta
Madrid 28002
Spain
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's: Portugal's banking system outlook remains negative
No Related Data.
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