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Announcement:

Moody's: Private student loan ABS has negative outlook for 2011, FFELP ABS stable

07 Dec 2010

Moody's Publishes 2011 Private Student Loan and FFELP Outlooks

New York, December 07, 2010 -- Because high unemployment shows no signs of abating and is striking recent college graduates particularly hard, the outlook for private student loan securitizations is negative for 2011, Moody's Investors Service says. The outlook for the vast majority of outstanding Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) securitizations is stable, however, as their servicing and administration remain mostly strong despite FFELP being discontinued after June 30th.

Among the private student loan securitizations, Moody's expects performance to be particularly weak among transactions issued in 2006-10. These transactions typically contain loans to borrowers who have recently entered or will soon enter the repayment period of their loans when job prospects are poor.

"The weak labor market has hit recent college graduates disproportionately hard, and therefore it will take a prolonged period of time for the economy to absorb the large population of recent college grads who were unable to secure employment," says Tracy Rice, a Moody's assistant vice president and analyst and co-author of the two 2011 outlook reports.

In 2010, issuance of private student loan ABS declined to $7.6 billion from $10.3 billion in 2009. Moody's expects private student loan ABS issuance to drop further in 2011 as large issuers face competition from the U.S. government in the form of student loan and grant programs. Issuers also continue to keep originations scaled back because of tightened underwriting.

On the FFELP loan side, Moody's expects refinancing to lead to new FFELP securitizations at volumes similar to those in 2010 despite FFELP being discontinued.

In 2010, total FFELP student loan ABS issuance increased by 25% to $13.5 billion from $10.8 billion in 2009.

Moody's expects the elimination of FFELP to lead to further market consolidation as loan originators and servicers exit the industry. Small players whose key business was to originate, acquire or service FFELP student loan portfolios are most likely to exit the business.

In most situations, the consolidation will not have a negative credit impact on outstanding FFELP securitizations. "We expect servicing quality to remain strong for the vast majority of outstanding FFELP securitizations," says Barbara Lambotte, a Moody's vice president--senior credit officer and co-author of the reports. "The transfer of servicing that consolidation may require will only be a risk in situations where a transaction has neither a large, stable primary servicer nor a third-party in place to facilitate an orderly transition."

In addition, Moody's does not expect the ongoing industry consolidation to impact the trust administration of the large majority of FFELP securitizations. However, risks do exist for certain trusts that small, unstable entities administer with no third-party in place to facilitate an orderly transfer.

Called "Private Student Loan ABS: 2011 Outlook and 2010 Review" and "FFELP Student Loan ABS: 2011 Outlook and 2010 Review," both reports are available on moodys.com.

* * * * *

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information please contact New York Press Information +1-212-553-0376; EMEA Press Information in London +44-20-7772-5456; Juan Pablo Soriano in Madrid +34-91-310-1454; Alex Cataldo in Milan +39-02-914-81-100; Eric de Bodard in Paris +331-5330-1076; Detlef Scholz in Frankfurt +49-69-707-30-700; Mardig Haladjian in Limassol +357-25-586-586; Alex Sazhin in Moscow +7-495-228-60-60; Petr Vins in Prague +4202 2422 2929; Tokyo Press Information +813-5408-4110; Hilary Parkes in Toronto +1-416-214-1635; Hong Kong Press Information +852 3758 1350; Hector Lim in Sydney +612 9270 8102; Luiz Tess in São Paulo +5511-3043-7300; Alberto Jones Tamayo in Mexico City +5255-1253-5700; Daniel Rúas in Buenos Aires +54 11-4816-2332 ext. 105; Craig Jamieson in Johannesburg +27-11-217-5470; Jehad el-Nakla in Dubai +971 4 237 9536; or visit our web site at www.moodys.com

New York
Tracy Rice
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

New York
Barbara A. Lambotte
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Investors Service
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's: Private student loan ABS has negative outlook for 2011, FFELP ABS stable
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