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Announcement:

Moody's: Revenue and cash flow growth drive moderate deleveraging for rated portfolio

 The document has been translated in other languages

21 Nov 2017

Hong Kong, November 21, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the revenue and profitability of Chinese corporates will likely remain stable in 2018, while the near-term refinancing needs of Moody's rated portfolio will also be manageable.

"Domestic GDP growth of 6.6% in 2018, operating-efficiency gains and stable commodity prices will drive moderate corporate revenue and cash flow growth, and while deleveraging has started in most industries, the pace varies widely," says Lina Choi, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

"We also believe that our rated portfolio's near-term refinancing needs are manageable," says Choi. "We note that bond maturities are evenly distributed through 2021."

Moody's conclusions are contained in its just-released presentation, "Non-Financial Corporates -- China, 2018 Outlook".

Specifically, Moody's rated portfolio's aggregate revenue and EBITDA will rise 5%-7% in 2018, while commodity companies will continue to see deleveraging progress as price recovery, more prudent capital spending and improved cost structures boost profitability and increase cash flow, thereby helping rated companies deleverage.

Moreover, corporate liquidity will be sufficient as onshore bank loans remain a solid financing channel.

Downside risks include GDP growth slowing materially; strengthening US protectionist policies slow corporate revenue growth; and the Chinese government further reining in credit supply, leading to tightened liquidity.

Other risks include a sharp renminbi devaluation limiting corporates' ability to raise or refinance offshore debt, or reducing profitability for those with large foreign currency exposure; and the property market weakening significantly due to regulatory tightening.

Upside risks include stronger-than-expected GDP growth from effective economic rebalancing and reforms; faster-than-expected progress on deleveraging due to corporates generating more revenue and cash flow; allocation of capital to sectors that will foster robust and sustainable medium-term growth, leading to sustained improvement in capacity utilization and earnings; and developed-world demand continues to recover, benefiting Chinese corporates.

In terms of the specifics for each sector, they are summarized as follows:

Automakers and auto services - Most rated automakers' unit sales growth will slow, while higher service penetration will benefit rated dealers and rental providers

Chemicals - Rising prices, non-core asset sales will support producers' credit quality

Construction and engineering services - Moderate demand growth will boosts earnings and leverage will be stable

Food and beverage - Revenue will stabilize

Internet - Revenue growth will slow from a high base

Manufacturing - EBITDA growth will drive decreases in leverage

Metals and mining -- Commodity-price recovery and low capital spending will support modest deleveraging

Oil and gas - Credit quality will stay stable with current oil price assumptions

Oilfield services - Improved demand growth will lead to higher earnings; leverage will improve

Property - Tight government policies over the sector will continue to slow sales growth

Retail - Credit quality will stabilize and there will be a focus on refinancing

Steel and cement - Improved pricing and enhanced cost controls will stabilize credit quality

Utilities - Thermal gencos will face rising fuel costs and overcapacity, but most rated utilities have financial buffers

Other goods and services - Growing demand will drive higher investment for health related products and services

Subscribers can read the full report at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1100024

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Lina Choi
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Gary Lau
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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