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Announcement:

Moody's: Revenue growth supported by price increases sustain EMEA telecoms' stable outlook into 2017

26 Oct 2016

Madrid, October 26, 2016 -- Stronger customer spending and increasing demand for high speed data will allow European telecommunications service providers to raise their prices, supporting sustained revenue growth and underpinning the sector's stable outlook into 2017, says Moody's Investors Service in a special report published today.

Moody's report, titled "Telecommunications -- EMEA: Price Increases Underpin Revenue Growth and Stable Outlook", is available on www.moodys.com. The report is part of a series of outlooks on a wide variety of sectors globally published by Moody's. For other reports in the series, go to https://www.moodys.com/researchandratings/market-segment/corporates/-/005000/4294966622%204294963919/4294966848/0/0/-/0/-/-/-/-1/-/-/-/en/global/pdf/-/rra.

"Customers are willing to pay more for better value and telcos will continue to offer higher speeds, more capacity, content and additional services, such as roaming, greater network security and cloud storage capacity, to support price increases," says Carlos Winzer, a Moody's Senior Vice President and author of the report.

Moody's expects the industry to sustain revenue growth between 1%-2% over the next 12-18 months. As revenues increase and costs are kept under control, profitability will improve and the industry will continue to enjoy high margins, rising from around 35% now to 36% by 2017.

The capex needs of European telecoms companies will remain high into 2017 with many increasing investment by close to 20% to achieve speeds of 100 Mbps for 100% of their geographical cover by 2025. This push will be a constrain on cash flows for Orange (Baa1 stable), Deutsche Telekom AG (DT, Baa1 stable) and Telecom Italia S.p.A. (Ba1 Negative).

Regulators have adopted a more balanced approach, shifting their focus from consumer price reductions to promoting investments in high speed networks. The European Commission's new telecoms regulatory framework, proposed in September, will focus on stimulating investments and is positive for European telecom operators.

Big cross-border M&A deals are unlikely to materialize over the next 12-18 months due to the lack of significant synergies that can be achieved, limited financial flexibility to execute large deals as well as governments' continued desire to protect their incumbent telecoms. Further in-market mobile consolidation in other European markets post the Wind/3 Italia merger is also unlikely into 2017.

Some of Europe's largest telcos like Telefonica, DT, Vodafone Group Plc (Baa1 stable), Telia Company (Baa1 stable) and Telecom Italia, still need to rebuild their financial strength to preserve their current ratings and will likely turn to asset sales and/or use excess cash to reduce debt and increase capex to support future revenue growth.

Central and Eastern European telecom operators will post low single-digit revenue growth on average over the next year, supported by regional real GDP growth in 2017 of around 3%. Russian telcos' outlook is stable thanks to strong credit profiles and moderate leverage, despite pressure on profitability as nominal wage growth remains low and inflation rises.

Telcos in Africa, the Middle East and Turkey will maintain low-to-mid-single digit real revenue growth in the next 18 months.

Moody's subscribers can access the report at:

http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1043167

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Carlos Winzer
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A.
Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta
Madrid 28002
Spain
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Ivan Palacios
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A.
Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta
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Spain
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

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