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Rating Action:

Moody's Reviews Aa3 Morgan Stanley for Downgrade

27 Jun 2008
Moody's Reviews Aa3 Morgan Stanley for Downgrade

Approximately $200 Billion in Long-Term Debt Affected

New York, June 27, 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service placed the long-term ratings of Morgan Stanley (senior unsecured at Aa3) and its subsidiaries on review for downgrade. The short-term Prime-1 ratings of Morgan Stanley and its guaranteed subsidiaries were affirmed.

Moody's said the more likely outcome of the review process would be a downgrade of Morgan Stanley's long-term rating to A1. By affirming the Prime-1 rating, Moody's said the outcome of this review would not result in a long-term rating below A2.

Since the onset of the credit crisis one year ago, Morgan Stanley's financial performance and risk management has been inconsistent, and below the levels expected of a Aa3-rated financial institution. Excluding recent gains from asset sales, Morgan Stanley has reported a pretax loss of nearly $1.4 billion over the past year, Moody's noted.

"Markets have clearly been challenging, but the firm has also incurred some expensive trading mishaps during the past year," said Peter Nerby, a Moody's Senior Vice-President. Morgan Stanley is making changes to the risk management organization, but Moody's thinks it is premature to conclude that these changes will be effective considering the complexity of the task.

During its review Moody's will focus on Morgan Stanley's ability to control risk and generate higher levels of profitability over the next one to two years, during which the operating environment may remain challenging for securities firms. Moody's noted that the firm has profitable franchises in investment banking, equities, commodities and prime brokerage and has improved performance within retail brokerage. On the other hand the firm has some risky concentrations in commercial real estate and single-name leveraged loans. The critical issue will be for Morgan Stanley to manage these and other concentrations, and their attendant basis risks such that any losses are well contained within the revenue capacity of the relevant business area.

Moody's observed that Morgan Stanley retains a strong liquidity profile. During the second quarter the firm increased its long-term capital base by $12 billion to $210 billion and increased its average liquidity pool by $13 billion to $135 billion. The firm also employs comprehensive and prudent liquidity risk management including a variety of stress tests that capture maturing debt, changes in collateral terms, potential departure of customer balances and other short-term working capital requirements.

Moody's noted that the recent collapse of Bear Stearns highlights the vulnerability of the secured funding model of Morgan Stanley and other investment banks to overall market liquidity. When market liquidity dries up, collateral becomes harder to value, margin disputes arise, and pressure on an investment bank's funding increases. The supportive actions of the Federal Reserve, including the Term Securities Lending Facility and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, have played a critical role to stabilize funding markets in the wake of the Bear Stearns collapse. These actions have provided at least an interim solution to industry-wide structural liquidity challenges. However neither facility is permanent in nature. In the absence of a more permanent solution Moody's believes that the newly revealed vulnerability of the secured funding model may warrant negative action on investment banks that rely on that model.

The long-term ratings had been placed on negative outlook on November 8, 2007.

Morgan Stanley is a global investment banking and wealth management firm headquartered in New York that reported pre-tax earnings of $3.8 billion for the six months ending May 31, 2008.

The long-term ratings of Morgan Stanley (senior unsecured at Aa3) and its subsidiaries were placed on review for possible downgrade. Short-term ratings of Morgan Stanley and its subsidiaries (P-1) were affirmed. The following is a partial listing of major operating subsidiaries and ratings that are on review for possible downgrade:

Morgan Stanley Bank AG; B Bank Financial Strength and Aa3 long-term deposit ratings.

Morgan Stanley Bank; B Bank Financial Strength and Aa3 long-term deposit ratings.

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc; Aa3 long-term deposit ratings.

The following subsidiaries are issuers of short-term obligations only and have had their short-term ratings affirmed and outlook returned to stable from negative.

Morgan Stanley International Finance SA

Morgan Stanley Japan Securities Co Ltd

Morgan Stanley Group (Europe)

Morgan Stanley Canada Limited

A full list of issuers and related debt actions follows:

Issuer: Morgan Stanley

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

.... Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Multiple Seniority Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A2

....Preferred Stock Preferred Stock, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A2

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Senior Unsecured Conv./Exch. Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)Aa3

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Bank

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

.... Bank Financial Strength Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently B

.... Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Deposit Note/Takedown, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Bank AG

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

.... Bank Financial Strength Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently B

.... Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Bank International Limited

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

.... Bank Financial Strength Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently B

.... Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Deposit Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

.... Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley (Jersey) Limited

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

.... Issuer Rating, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Australia Finance Limited

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Canada Limited

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Stable From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Capital Trust III

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Preferred Stock, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Capital Trust IX

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Capital Trust V

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Preferred Stock, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Capital Trust VI

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Preferred Stock, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Capital Trust VII

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Preferred Stock, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Capital Trust VIII

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Preferred Stock, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Capital Trust X

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Finance plc

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Multiple Seniority Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Group (Europe)

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Stable From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Group Inc.

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Multiple Seniority Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Multiple Seniority Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A2

....Preferred Stock Preferred Stock, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A2

....Subordinate Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently Aa3

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley International Finance SA

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Stable From Negative

Issuer: Morgan Stanley Japan Securities Co Ltd

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Stable From Negative

Issuer: MS Capital Trust IV

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Preferred Stock, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently A1

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: MS Capital Trust II

..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Preferred Stock Shelf, Placed on Review for Possible Downgrade, currently (P)A1

..Outlook Actions:

....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

New York
Peter E. Nerby
Senior Vice President
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

New York
Robert Young
Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

No Related Data.
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