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Announcement:

Moody's: Rising debt levels leave first-time house buyers in south England stretched further than northern borrowers

26 May 2016

London, 26 May 2016 -- Higher house prices and stagnant incomes are leaving first-time house buyers in south England increasingly submerged in debt compared to their northern counterparts, says Moody's Investors Service.

"Our analysis shows that most first time buyers' mortgage debt is over three and a half times their income in south England, whereas this ratio is up to 30% lower in the north. Mortgage accessibility is restricted for first time buyers, who need up to 15% higher deposits in some cases, compared with non-first-time buyers," says Steven Becker, an Analyst at Moody's.

"Higher leverage leads to more pronounced credit risk. Alongside higher loan-to-value ratios, this weighs on loan performance and reduces the likelihood of recoveries if the underlying property is repossessed," says Greg Davies, an Assistant Vice President at Moody's.

Moody's report, entitled "RMBS - UK: Rising Debt Levels Leave First-Time Buyers in Southern England Increasingly Stretched Compared to Northern Borrowers," is available on www.moodys.com. The rating agency's report does not constitute a rating action.

Borrowers who bought a home in the south of England over the past two years are more leveraged than their Northern counterparts, with up to 30% higher loan-to-income (LTI) ratios. In the south, loan-to-value ratios are up to 23% higher for first-time buyers compared to experienced buyers. That said, while mortgage spending is highest in the south, so are incomes.

In Scotland in Q2 2007, single-income borrowers would have needed about 40% equity to buy a property, with an average house price of about GBP145,600 for the region, and a median income of about GBP23,100, according to ONS. However, double-income borrowers would have only needed about 1% equity. House prices have since decreased to about GBP133,700 in the region, with a rise in median income of about 20% over the same period, according to ONS. Therefore, single-income borrowers would today only need about 7% equity (subject to banks' underwriting polices including maximum LTV levels).

The data for double-income borrowers in north east England shows an implied equity surplus at about 80% as of end 2015. For double-income borrowers based on affordability only - not considering any LTV limits - the positive values mean that their combined income is sufficient to (1) purchase a property worth the average house price; and (2) allow them to access the funds for properties that are 80% higher than the average house price in the region.

First-time buyers now borrow over longer periods of time to reduce the average mortgage spending. For example, their mortgage terms are up to five years longer compared with experienced buyers. Overall, the weighted-average loan term in the UK is 28 years for first-time buyers, compared with 23 years for experienced buyers.

"Londoners have the toughest time getting on to the property ladder, as only high earners have access to the mortgage market. The London median total income observed in the pools used to obtain a mortgage is 2.4x than the London median annual salary," adds Mr Davies "High up-front deposits result in later entry into the property market than the rest of the UK and Londoners have to increase their leverage significantly to purchase a property. About 70% of first-time borrowers have an LTI ratio of 3.5x or more, compared with 54% of experienced buyers at the same leverage level," he explains.

Moody's modeled a selection of LTV ratios. As newly-originated loans find their way into secured mortgage pools of UK residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), borrower leverage will be higher in new deals. As these loans enter RMBS pools, Moody's methodology factors in LTV ratios as being a key driver of performance for mortgage loans in the UK.

Subscribers can access the report at: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1023710

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Steven Becker
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
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Annabel Schaafsma
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
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Gregory Davies
AVP-Research Writer
Structured Finance Group
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Moody's: Rising debt levels leave first-time house buyers in south England stretched further than northern borrowers
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