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01 Feb 2017
London, 01 February 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service says that an emerging recovery in car
sales in Russia through 2017 looks set to drive renewed growth for the
country's auto lenders.
Moody's conclusion is contained in its just released report, "Auto
Lenders -- Russia -- Car Sales Recovery to Drive Renewed Growth,"
and is available at www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers
can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press
release. The rating agency's report is an update to the markets
and does not constitute a rating action.
"We expect a combination of rising car sales and the growing credit
penetration of the auto market in Russia to drive a recovery of car loan
originations in 2017," says Svetlana Pavlova, an Assistant
Vice President at Moody's. "This situation will support
the auto lenders' interest and fee incomes."
New car sales in Russia grew by 1% in November 2016 compared with
a year earlier and Moody's anticipates auto loan book growth of
2%-5% in 2017. Auto loan securitization is
also likely to increase as lending recovers.
Moody's says that Rusfinance Bank is best positioned to benefit
from the car market upturn of the three rated Russian auto lenders (Rusfinance
Bank, Bystrobank JSC and Metallurgical Commmercial Bank).
Rusfinance Bank's capital adequacy ratios are higher than those
for its rated domestic peers, which will help it take advantage
of growth opportunities over the next 12-18 months. Rusfinance
Bank also has access to parental liquidity support, which benefits
its net interest margin.
Smaller peer, Bystrobank JSC meanwhile, will benefit from
faster growth in used car sales, which expanded by 6% in
2016 in contrast to an 11% contraction in new car sales.
Used car loans accounted for 40% of Bystrobank JSC new lending
in January-November 2016 compared to 6%-20%
for rated Russian peers.
The recent recovery in new car sales in Russia has so far been most pronounced
in the low-cost segment of the market. Sales of economy-class
cars are supported by government subsidies which partly offset the interest
costs on consumer auto loans.
During January-September 2016, approximately 50% of
all car sales in Russia were supported by government subsidies.
The Russian Ministry for Production and Trade has announced plans to extend
the subsidy program to 2017, although its terms and conditions could
Subscribers can access the report at: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1053771
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